EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
148 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2010
 
...VALID 18Z FRI APR 30 2010 - 00Z SUN MAY 02 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW M89 10 ENE M89 30 NNW LRF 15 ENE UNO FAM 10 ESE SLO
35 SSW EHR 40 WNW BWG 25 NE CKV 25 SE MKL 25 SSE UTA 20 SSE LLQ
10 W ELD 35 SSW M89.

 
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.  A VERY IMPRESSIVE MSTR FLUX
FM THE GULF OF MEXICO..INCRSG DIV ALOFT WITH TIME AND STG LLVL
MSTR CNVGNC IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVNG/NIGHT WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THE DVLPMNT OF WIDESPREAD HVY CNVCTV RAINS. IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY FIRE THE ACTVTY WITH PWS
AOA 1.75 INCHES EVENTUALLY BEING AVBL FOR SUPPORT.  MODEL
QPFS..WHILE ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HVY RAINS..DIFFER
ON LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT WITH THE NCEP MODELS IN GNRL FARTHER
NORTH THAN NON-NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE QPF MAXIMA.  FOR NOW MORE OR
LESS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE IDEA THAT MESOSCALE FORCING
WILL LIKELY BRING ACTVTY FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDCTD BY NCEP
GUIDANCE.  COULD SEE QUICK LOCALIZED 2.00 INCH RNFL TOTALS WITH
3.00 TO 5.00 INCH TOTALS BEING POSSIBLE THRU THE FCST PD.

KORTY
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