EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
936 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011
 
...VALID 15Z TUE MAY 03 2011 - 12Z WED MAY 04 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S SEG 30 NNE HGR 15 WNW HGR 20 ENE CBE 20 NNE CBE JST
15 ENE IDI 15 W FIG 20 NNW FIG 25 SE BFD 20 E BFD 20 W ELZ
30 WNW ELZ 30 SSE BUF 20 ESE BUF 10 W ROC 20 SW ART 30 W SLK
CWTA 10 S CWHQ 10 S CMSR 35 ESE CWST 45 WSW FVE 55 NNW MLT
10 NW GNR 25 NE BML 15 S 1V4 15 NNW LEB GFL 40 WSW SCH 30 SE BGM
15 S SEG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
15 S CMCW 10 WNW CMSB 10 NE CMGB 15 NNE CWHY CWQH 15 SSE CWQH
30 S CWQH 20 NNW 1V4 10 ESE MVL MPV 20 W MPV 20 SSW BTV
30 SW BTV 30 SSE SLK 35 S SLK 30 SSW SLK 20 SW SLK 15 S CMCW.

 
STILL XPC SOME FLOODING CONCERNS ACRS PTNS OF THE NERN STATES THIS
PD..AS LATEST MDL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN
GRADUALLY PHASING SRN STREAM UPR TROF PUSHING EWD FROM THE SRN
PLAINS WITH NRN STREAM TROF MOVING MORE SLOWLY THRU THE WRN GT
LAKES/MIDWEST.  LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACRS THE NRN MID
ATLC REGION LATER TUE AND LIFT MORE SLOWLY NWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
BY WED MRNG AS UPR TROF TRENDS TOWARD CLOSING OFF OVER THE ERN GT
LAKES.  THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACRS
UPSTATE NY/NRN VT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS INTO THE ASSOCD
FRONTAL BNDRY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY THRU THE
REGION TUE NIGHT.  COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME EMBDD CONVECTIVE CELLS
AS AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY WORKS NWD INTO THE REGION TUE
NIGHT..WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER CONVECTION. 
OTHERWISE..EXPECT A LONGER DURATION RAINFALL EVENT WITH STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM NERN PA NWD INTO UPSTATE NY
INTO NWRN MAINE.  INDICATED A MDT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF NERN
NY/NRN VT WHERE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED HEAVIEST RAINS COINCIDE
WITH RATHER LOW FFG VALUES WITH SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING SWD INTO
CNTRL PA. 

TERRY
$$