EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
159 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011
 
...VALID 18Z SAT APR 30 2011 - 00Z MON MAY 02 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
BPK EVV HOP GLH TYR PRX BPK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
LLQ 20 SW TXK RUE CIR OLV LLQ.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HOT JBR AWM 15 N LLQ 35 W ELD TXK HOT.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW M89 20 WNW PBF 35 SW PBF 35 WNW ELD
15 ENE TXK 10 SW M89.

 
...LWR OH VLY INTO ARKLATX...
LATEST GUID CONTS TO ADVERTISE SPLIT FLOW DVLPG OVER THE CNTRL
U.S. AS A DEEP 5H VORTEX LIFTS NEWD FM THE NRN PLNS...WHILE A
TRAILING TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH
A SEPARATE SEMI-CLOSED LOW DVLPG AT 5H. THIS WL ALLOW FOR INCRSG
UPR DIFL/DVRG FLOW FM THE ARKLATX NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY TNGT
WITH INCRSG DEEP LYRD ASCENT NR A SFC/8H FNTL BNDRY THAT WL PUSH
INTO THE REGION THEN STALL. LATEST SUITE OF GUID IS SHOWG MORE
SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED HVY RNFL DVLPG THIS EVE ACRS THE ARKLATX
THAT WL DVLP NEWD ALNG THE BNDRY INTO THE LWR OH VLY. MDLS ARE
SUGGESTING TNGTS CNVCTN WL LIFT NEWD WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN
THE HVY RNFL VRY LATE TNGT OVR THE ARKLATX...THEN REDEVELOP ON SUN
OVR NRN TX AND PUSH BACK INTO THE ARKLATX SUN AFTN/EVE. MSTR FEEDG
INTO THE REGION CONTS TO BUILD WITH SATL/GPS PWS SHOWG VALUES
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVR MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA. MDLS SHOW THIS
MSTR CONTG TO LIFT NEWD WITH VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50-1.75 INCHES AS
MSTR POOLG TAKES PLC AND A MOD/STG LLJ CONTS TO SUPPORT MSTR
FLUX/TRANSPORT. PW ANOMALIES BUILD TO NEAR TWO STDS ABV
NRML...WHILE THE DVLPMENT OF A MOD/STG LLJ TNGT WL HELP INCRS MSTR
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH ANOMALIES BUILDING TO 4-5 STDS ABV
NRML AND AIMED INTO SWRN/SRN ARK...BEFORE WEAKENG AND LIFTG NEWD
VRY LATE TNGT. MSTR FLUX WL THEN INCRS ON SUN INTO NRN TX. SFC/8H
BNDRYS ARE FCST TO STALL THRU THE REGION OR MOVE VRY SLOLY...WITH
A STG 8H THETA-E RDG BUILDG ALNG THE BNDRY. MDLS CONT TO SUPPORT
TRAING THRU THE REGION...ESPCLY TNGT AS THE LLJ VEERS TO A MORE
SWRLY DIR. MDL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ALL SHOWG VRY FAVORABLE PROFILES
FOR HVY RNFL WITH TALL SKINNY CAPES AND MIDLVL LAPSE RATES ARND 6
C/KM. EXPERIMENTAL HI-RES DENSITY PLOTS OF RNFL EXCEEDING FFG ARE
SHOWING SOME THREAT OVR THE CONFLUENCE REGION OF THE OH/MS RIVERS
WHERE FFG IS LOWEST...BUT INCRSG RISK HAS DVLPD FARTHER SW INTO
ARK WHERE TRAINING COULD DVLP TNGT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
HVY RNFL SHLD BE TNGT WITH LCL 1-2 INCH HRLY RATES AND PSBL 4-5
INCH TOTALS BY SUN EVE...ESPCLY FM THE ARKLATX NEWD INTO NERN
ARK/WRN TN.

ECKERT
$$