EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
222 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2011
 
...VALID 06Z SAT APR 30 2011 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N ARG 15 SE POF CIR 15 ESE PAH 30 SE PAH 45 SSE PAH
15 ESE DYR 10 NW AWM SGT 10 E M89 30 SW M89 20 NNW TXK 20 S DEQ
25 W DEQ 45 NNE PRX 20 E AQR 20 NE AQR 20 E MLC 10 SSE RKR
35 NNW MWT 25 S FLP 25 N ARG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
35 NNW LRF 20 ENE ARG 15 NNW DYR 25 ESE M19 15 SE SRC 10 SW LIT
10 NNE HOT 20 NNW HOT 35 NNW LRF.

 

NRN PORTION OF SPLIT TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACRS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT WILL STALL IN RESPONSE TO
PRES FALLS IN ADVANCE OF SRN PORTION OF TROF LEFT BEHIND THAT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY SUN MRNG.  THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR THE SET UP OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT NIGHT OVER
SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.  MODELS ALL SHOW RAPID RETURN OF GULF MSTR WITH PWS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SAT NIGHT ALONG THE BNDRY FROM THE
RED RIVER ENEWD INTO WRN KY/WRN TN.  UPR LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE FRONTAL BNDRY..WHILE
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDS TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. 
WITH UPR LEVEL WINDS FCST TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC BNDRY..THE
THREAT OF TRAINING WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ESPECIALLY THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SE OK..AR INTO WRN TN/WRN KY.  EXPECT SOME GENL 1 TO 3 INCH
INCHES WITHIN A 12 HR PD ACRS PORTIONS OF SE OK NEWD ACRS ARK INTO
WRN KY/WRN TN...WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES OR SO IN SOME
SPOTS.  GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND..HAVE INDICATED A MDT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM CNTL AR NEWD INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL.  

SULLIVAN 
$$