EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1007 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2011
 
...VALID 15Z FRI APR 22 2011 - 12Z SAT APR 23 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE LEX 25 W BWG 30 SSE POF FLP 10 ESE HRO 10 SW HRO
25 E ASG 10 SE ASG 10 WNW FYV 10 S SLG 10 SSW SLG 20 WNW SLG
15 SSW GMJ GMJ 30 N ROG 30 SW SGF 10 ENE SGF 10 NNE TBN VIH
15 NE JEF 25 NW COU 40 NNE DMO 35 SE CDJ 10 SSE CDJ 25 WNW CDJ
30 NW CDJ 25 SSE LWD 30 WNW IRK 10 E IRK 30 W UIN 35 WSW PPQ
40 WNW SET 35 WNW SET 10 NE SET 15 NW ALN 20 N ALN 30 NNE ALN
10 SSW TAZ 10 SSW CMI MIE 15 NE MNN MFD BJJ 10 ESE CAK
15 WNW BVI 10 ENE BVI BTP 20 E BTP 15 NW IDI 20 NNE IDI
20 SSW FIG 20 WSW UNV 25 SE UNV 25 W CXY 30 NE HGR 20 NE HGR
10 ENE HGR 10 SSE HGR MRB OKV 15 S OKV 25 SSW OKV 35 NE SHD
25 NE SHD 20 NNW SHD 30 SE EKN 30 SSE EKN 25 SSW EKN 15 E 48I
10 WNW 48I 30 NE CRW 15 ESE 3I2 15 SSW 3I2 35 ESE LEX.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
20 E HNB 15 SW EHR 30 WNW CGI 10 S FAM 10 SW SAR ENL 10 N RSV
15 NW BMG 35 SE GEZ 20 W CVG 30 NW SDF 20 E HNB.

 
UPDATE...

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
MOSTLY ON THE EDGES...EXPANDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS WHERE FFG VALUES ARE VERY LOW...NWWD INTO PORTIONS OF
NRN MO AHEAD OF CURRENT EWD MOVG CONVECTION...AND SLIGHTLY SWWD
INTO FAR NWRN AR FOR EXPECTED CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. 
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR THINKING WITH THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HVY PCPN AMTS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY...ENEWD THRU THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
 WIDESPREAD 1.00 TO 2.00 INCH AMTS ARE LIKELY WITH TOTALS IN
EXCESS OF 3.00 INCHES LIKELY OVR LOCALIZED AREAS.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO AGAINST BULK OF GUIDANCE INDCTG THE
POTENTIAL FOR SGFNT PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/OH VLY
AREAS TODAY AS CNTRL U.S. CYCLOGENESIS RESULTS IN AN INTENSE NWD
MSTR FLUX INTO THE AREA.  SHWRS ASOCTD WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG AN E/W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PRECEDE THE PUSH OF
CDFNT INTO/ACROSS SAME GNRL AREA TNGT WHICH WILL TRIGGER ADNL
WIDESPREAD CNVCTV RAINS. FVBL JET DYNAMICS AND ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
PWS WILL BE IN PLACE TO ENHANCE CNVCTV DVLPMNT.  WIDESPREAD 1.00
TO 2.00 INCH AMTS ARE LIKELY WITH TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3.00 INCHES
LIKELY OVR LOCALIZED AREAS.

KORTY
q$$