QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 250 PM EDT WED JUN 09 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 10/0000 UTC THRU JUN 11/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... NORTHEASTERN TX... ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INVOF THE SLOW MOVG MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW FCST TO PUSH ENEWD THIS PERIOD THRU NERN TX. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...POSSIBLY DUE TO GRID SCALE CONVECTION ISSUES. OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL MODEL SIGNAL WL BE FOR A VERY SLOW MOVG SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABOVE AVG PW VALUES. SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVR THE PAST DAY...ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CNTR DURG THE DAY AND CONTRACT TOWARD THE CNTR AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO A INLAND TROPICAL SYSTEM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMTS POSSIBLE INVOF THIS CNTR WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF PCPN REGION AND/OR TRAINING OF CELLS...ESPECIALLY ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF THE EC...GFS AND UKMET...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HVY TOTALS. ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES LIKELY IN REGIONS OF SLOW MOVEMENT OR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... PW VALUES WL REMAIN HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT DRAPED FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN MID ATL. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH PCPN IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WHICH WL BE REMOVED FROM THE UPSTREAM SLOW MOVG VORT. THERE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HVY TOTALS IN THIS AXIS...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...AREAL AVG AMTS KEPT ON THE LIGHT TO MDT SIDE. LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WELL DEFINED SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE STNRY FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE CNTRL TO SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND PROGRESSING SEWD TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THU. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS WITH THE PSN OF THIS CONVECTION. THE NAM INITIATES THE ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF SUGGEST A FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AXIS. THE HI RES ARW IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE HI RES NMM IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH THE SREF MEAN. AT THE MOMENT,...DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE FARTHER SWD AXIS OF THE SREF MEAN AND HI RES NMM...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF THE QPF AXES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT/EARLY THU. NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY... ABOVE AVG PWS VALUES WL ALSO STREAM NWD THU INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS SFC PRESSURES LOWER ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME INTERRUPTION TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IF CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS...THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS OVR ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. THE LATEST UKMET IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS HEAVIER TOTALS OVR SD..WITH A MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS OF.25-.50"+....WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLN. PAC NW... THE WELL DEFINED UPR TROF PUSHING INLAND INTO THE PAC NW COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WL CONT TO PUSH STEADILY INLAND THIS PERIOD ACRS NRN CA/PAC NW AND INLAND INTO THE GTBASIN/NRN ROCKIES REGION. PERSISTENT ONSHORE WLY FLOW WL SUPPORT .25-.50"+ PCPN AMTS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE PAC. HOWEVER...WITH PW VALUES NOT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE HEAVY PCPN AMTS OVR THE PAC NW WITH THIS SYSTEM. LIGHTER PCPN AMTS EXPECTED INLAND THRU THE GTBASIN...WHILE .25"+ AMTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF NWRN WY INTO FAR ERN ID AND ACRS CNTRL TO NRN ID. NORTHEAST... SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE NRN MID ATL COAST AHEAD OF THE STRONG HT FALLS MOVG EWD THRU THE LOWER LAKES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROF WL PUSH MUCH ABOVE AVG PW VALUES NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED OVERRUNNING PCPN AND POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVG OFFSHORE...UPSTREAM UVVS FROM THE PRIMARY UPR VORT WL PUSH ACRS NRN TO ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURG THU. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS UNDER THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WL SUPPORT SHOWERY CONDITIONS INVOF THIS UPR CNTR...WITH ISOLATED MDT TO HVY TOTALS POSSIBLE. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 11/00Z 0.01 553093 554079 555073 554067 554055 552045 546032 540023 532014 524005 516995 512990 511987 509984 510982 511979 511974 510960 508951 506941 497927 493921 489916 447911 440910 435907 427901 410891 401885 397883 394877 388867 384861 383858 382850 384844 386833 389821 391815 394807 396801 400795 410783 417779 423779 428778 433781 451798 456809 463821 475848 481860 485864 489867 494870 498872 501869 506863 505844 503833 500824 494805 487786 483776 480767 477762 474752 469732 460715 455703 447689 445685 440678 437674 432669 423663 413663 403663 395665 391668 384676 377686 361708 357714 354720 350732 347742 345747 339751 335756 331759 328756 323756 322756 320759 318761 315770 313794 310806 307819 305824 305829 304842 304857 304869 305882 306893 307902 308909 308916 306921 302930 297938 287942 279947 273956 273961 274966 278972 282976 292982 301986 307988 310989 314989 325987 334983 344976 350968 355963 360963 365963 369967 370971 368977 367981 366985 367989 372999 376002 377009 374015 374025 375033 377041 380049 384053 385056 384060 381066 381069 378069 374065 372066 372072 373074 376080 378083 381083 389078 392080 395084 399094 401102 400108 391113 392117 397121 402123 408124 413126 415131 414140 412149 404172 405179 407186 412192 414200 416203 419202 424199 431191 434192 437198 441203 445205 448205 456196 462186 469175 475176 480180 487189 489192 489196 485200 462203 459203 458205 456211 450213 445212 437213 432215 428216 425218 422219 420221 417228 413230 408231 404231 400228 396231 395237 398244 400247 404251 412254 427258 509276 517261 521250 524243 526232 529225 531214 532207 533200 538184 540177 542164 545145 548123 549114 551106 552096 553093 0.01 275815 276811 275807 270801 268797 264792 259791 255791 250793 247798 243808 242812 243818 246823 250821 252816 250812 252808 254814 263820 267821 270820 275815 0.25 547098 548085 548073 546063 544054 542046 538038 534033 528031 523029 517028 512025 508019 502003 496991 497984 496978 488967 484960 481955 476950 470948 458947 453947 447946 443946 439948 435953 426962 425967 426972 429976 433982 436987 439992 444999 449001 457999 464996 471997 476999 480004 488015 492020 496023 501028 505034 511045 515051 518058 520067 521077 520089 518095 517100 513098 511098 511103 511110 512116 512123 509131 506137 504147 501149 500153 498160 494164 491166 490171 496176 501180 506185 516195 520197 525197 528193 529189 532181 534173 536161 537150 537141 539131 540126 545108 547098 0.25 500233 496221 494215 488211 482210 475210 464212 446217 439217 436218 424222 426229 425235 419235 415236 414240 415243 419246 426249 436249 447249 457248 468248 480249 482246 482241 481235 479232 476230 470228 472224 478221 488223 492225 496231 500234 500233 0.25 457736 455727 452723 444713 437703 429695 421688 412683 407682 403683 393688 390691 387696 384702 383708 383719 386734 395757 399763 403762 409753 414749 418750 426756 434765 438767 443767 448767 454762 457756 458749 458740 457736 0.25 501068 502063 500061 499059 500056 500054 498050 497048 495045 494044 491042 489041 488041 487041 488045 488046 488050 489054 491058 491059 494062 495063 497066 499068 500069 501068 0.25 471162 472158 471154 468149 465146 462145 459147 456150 453153 450157 446158 448162 450167 451170 454169 457167 463165 466165 471162 0.25 445109 438105 434100 430095 427092 429098 429104 423107 421112 417114 414115 420119 426119 432113 438109 445109 0.25 414968 413964 409961 404962 398964 390967 385966 381967 378970 376974 376981 380987 386991 392994 398994 404992 408984 410976 411972 413968 414968 0.25 406026 408023 407019 405012 403008 399004 396003 393005 390009 388014 387017 388020 391023 394025 397027 403029 406026 0.25 358793 357788 353790 348796 344801 340807 336813 333818 336824 340826 344820 347813 350807 353802 357795 358793 0.25 366867 365861 362854 357845 353844 348847 343848 337851 335853 333857 331868 331879 332885 334892 339898 342900 348899 359896 362894 363889 364879 366867 0.25 355942 356937 355932 350927 344926 336928 322932 314936 309940 304945 299948 294953 295960 296966 300972 305975 314976 330972 337970 343966 346962 351954 355942 0.50 544088 545079 544071 541059 538048 534046 529046 526048 526050 529058 530063 530071 529076 528092 526099 524103 519113 516124 513138 511149 509157 509165 510170 513175 521181 525179 528176 532165 534131 536115 540102 544088 0.50 446739 446731 443726 437718 425704 420697 412691 406690 401692 397697 393714 392724 394734 396744 399755 402755 405752 409745 413741 416741 424740 429751 435759 438759 442756 446748 446739 0.50 486214 485213 482212 479212 476215 473214 472215 472217 475217 478217 481217 482218 484217 486214 0.50 478243 480239 479236 477234 476233 475233 473234 470236 472241 475242 476243 478243 478243 0.50 472219 468215 464215 458216 451217 447218 443218 436220 430223 429224 432228 441228 447227 454225 462227 467222 472219 0.50 475973 475969 474964 471961 462958 453957 442958 438959 435960 433964 434971 436976 438979 443983 450986 456987 462987 470987 476986 475977 475973 0.50 465239 464236 461234 458233 455233 452234 449235 446236 445236 443237 440238 438238 439242 442242 445242 448243 451243 452243 454243 457243 460242 461242 463240 465239 0.50 349940 346936 342934 335933 328935 322937 315940 308948 305952 303959 304969 306972 309973 313974 324971 331969 337967 341963 344959 346953 348947 349940 1.00 342948 342943 340940 334938 326939 319943 315947 311953 309961 309968 311970 314970 319969 327967 331966 335964 338959 342952 342948 1.50 339946 338942 335941 329940 323942 317947 314953 312961 313967 318967 326965 332964 337958 338955 339949 339946 2.00 336950 335944 332942 326942 321945 318947 316953 315957 316963 321964 326964 332962 334959 336953 336950 3.00 334954 334950 333947 333946 330945 327945 324946 322949 319953 319956 320959 320960 323961 325962 326962 329962 330961 331959 333957 334954 334954 4.00 332954 331951 330949 327948 324949 322952 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