EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1029 AM EDT WED JUN 09 2010
 
...VALID 15Z WED JUN 09 2010 - 12Z THU JUN 10 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HYI 10 NE HYI 20 NW 62H LHB 20 SSW CRS CRS 30 W TYR TYR
15 NNE JSO 20 WSW OCH 15 WNW CXO 35 ESE 3T5 40 NNW VCT 40 SE RND
10 ESE SSF 10 SSW RND SAT 15 NNE SAT 20 NNW RND 15 NNW BAZ HYI.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW END 10 WNW END 25 NW END 25 E AVK 30 SE P28 30 E P28
20 WSW ICT 10 SSW ICT 15 SE IAB 15 ENE WLD 30 WNW BVO 20 NNW TUL
15 NW RVS 25 W RVS 20 SSE END 10 WSW END.

 
UPDATE...

NCNTRL KS/NCNTRL OK...

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK REGION OVR SERN
KS WAS SHIFTED SWD FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  LATEST SATL
IMAGERY IS SHOWING OVERALL WARMING TO LAST NIGHTS MCC...BUT
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX AS MOIST SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNS THE OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT HAS PUSHED INTO
NERN OK.  OVERRUNNING OF THIS OUTFLOW BNDRY WL CONT TO SUPPORT NW
TO SE MOVG CONVECTION INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVR PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
CELLS IN THIS AXIS WITH ISOLATED 1-2" PCPN AMTS IN A SHRT PERIOD.

SCNTRL TO NERN TX...

WV IMAGERY AND LATEST UPR AIR ANALYSIS CONT TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL TO NERN TX.  MODEL
DATA IS SHOWING TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS OVR THIS REGION...WITH
LATEST SATL IMAGERY AND UPR AIR ANALYSIS CONFIRMING THIS.  WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ACRS MOST OF SCNTRL TO NERN TX...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVG OR TRAINING OF CELLS ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION.  SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF 2-4"+ POSSIBLE
IN THIS REGION OF TRAINING OR SLOW MOVEMENT..WITH ISOLATED AMTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. 

WRN TO CNTRL KY...

CONVECTION CONTS TO ENHANCE THIS MORNING IN AN AXIS OF HIGH PW
VALUES (1.75-2.00"+) TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT PUSHING SEWD
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY REGION. LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ACRS WRN TO CNTRL
KY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH ACRS THIS AREA.  HOWEVER..WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF CELLS IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS...ISOLATED 1-2"+ PCPN AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

ERN TN..

AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION CONTS TO PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD
THIS MORNING THRU CNTRL TO ERN TN.  LATEST SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
WARMING TO THE CLOUD TOPS.  GIVEN THIS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION..DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE WIDESPREAD
RUNOFF ISSUES.  ISOLATED SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1"+ MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREA OF ERN TN

NRN MS/NRN AL BORDER...

THE WRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVG THRU TN IS FAIRLY SLOW
MOVG OVR THE NRN MS/NRN AL BORDER REGION.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION IN THIS AXIS/POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WL SUPPORT
ISOLATED 1-2"+ PCPN AMTS ACRS THIS REGION THIS MORNING. 

ORAVEC


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...SOUTHEAST KS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO STALL OVER SERN
KS. INTENSE CONVECTION AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE
MAJORITY OF SERN KS INTO EXTREME SWRN MO. ONCE AGAIN... THE FCST
IS BECOMING MORE OF A NOW CAST LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AND
ALL OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME
HANDLING ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY... RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... PWATS CORE POOLING
TO 2 INCHES AND 20 TO 25 KTS OF SRLY INFLOW FROM A ONCE AGAIN
ACTIVE LL JET IS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY AND ITS LIKELY CONTINUATION
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO POSSIBLY 12 HRS. ONE TO TWO INCHES IS VERY
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS THIS
ACTIVITY SLOWLY TRACKS SEWRD. FFG THOUGH NOT EXTREMELY LOW WILL
EASILY BE OVERCOME AND HPC WILL ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

...ERN TN VLY...
A SEE TEXT FOR POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE
ERN TN VLY AS ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE ACTIVITY
PINPOINT THE UPSTREAM MCV OVER IN TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER AS SEEN FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS... ANY FCST
BEYOND 6 TO 12 HRS ON THE HANDLING OF ACTIVE CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GUIDANCE IS TOUGH TO FEEL CONFIDENT
ABOUT. THE MCV SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO AN AREA WHERE PWS WILL BE
POOLING AOA 2 INCHES AND WHERE FFG IS RELATIVELY LOW.    

MUSHER
$$