EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
247 AM EDT WED JUN 09 2010
 
...VALID 06Z WED JUN 09 2010 - 12Z THU JUN 10 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N UKL 40 NE JLN 25 ESE JLN 25 N BVO 20 W ICT 15 SSW GBD
10 N UKL.

 
...SOUTHEAST KS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO STALL OVER SERN
KS. INTENSE CONVECTION AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE
MAJORITY OF SERN KS INTO EXTREME SWRN MO. ONCE AGAIN... THE FCST
IS BECOMING MORE OF A NOWCAST LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AND ALL
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TIME
HANDLING ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY... RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... PWATS CORE POOLING
TO 2 INCHES AND 20 TO 25 KTS OF SRLY INFLOW FROM A ONCE AGAIN
ACTIVE LL JET IS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY AND ITS LIKELY CONTINUATION
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO POSSIBLY 12 HRS. ONE TO TWO INCHES IS VERY
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS THIS
ACTIVITY SLOWLY TRACKS SEWRD. FFG THOUGH NOT EXTREMELY LOW WILL
EASILY BE OVERCOME AND HPC WILL ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

...ERN TN VLY...
A SEE TEXT FOR POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE
ERN TN VLY AS ALL 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE ACTIVITY
PINPOINT THE UPSTREAM MCV OVER IN TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER AS SEEN FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS... ANY FCST
BEYOND 6 TO 12 HRS ON THE HANDLING OF ACTIVE CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GUIDANCE IS TOUGH TO FEEL CONFIDENT
ABOUT. THE MCV SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO AN AREA WHERE PWS WILL BE
POOLING AOA 2 INCHES AND WHERE FFG IS RELATIVELY LOW.    

MUSHER
$$