EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
919 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010
 
...VALID 03Z WED JUN 09 2010 - 00Z THU JUN 10 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E SGF 30 NE JLN JLN 15 S JLN 25 W GMJ 25 ESE CFV 20 W CFV
15 WSW CNU 45 ENE CNU 25 SSW SZL 15 S DMO 10 WSW JEF 10 E VIH
20 SE TBN 10 E SGF.


...SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN MO ...

LATEST MDL GUIDANCE...SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KS AND MO.  BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CELL
MOTION IS MORE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AND A PWAT CORE RISING TO OVER 2 INCHES (OBSERVED AT
00Z AT BOTH TOPEKA/LITTLE ROCK) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CELLS WITH VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES.  HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST CONTINUED PROPAGATION INTO OK AND AR...WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE 
VALUES SHARPLY INCREASE.  SINCE AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED WHILE
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE 3-4 INCHES IN AR AND ADJACENT EASTERN OK...THE
RISK AREA IS SHOWN OVER SOUTHEAST KS TO SOUTHERN MO.  ALSO..SINCE
THE MOISTURE POOL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...THE
RISK SHOULD BE FOR TONIGHT AND END IN THE MORNING.
MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH THE ONLY ONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS OVER AN INCH WAS THE 12Z UKMET..INDICATING UP TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN.  A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER
RESEARCH/FORECAST MODELS SHOW 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
CELLS.

PETERSEN
$$