QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 248 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 12/0000 UTC THRU JUN 13/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO PUSH EWD TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SAT FROM THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE W-E ORIENTED SFC BNDRY ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS AND FAVORABLE UPR DIFFLUENCE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE WRN U.S. UPR TROF WL SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MODEL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS THAT THIS NEXT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WL TRACK. THE GFS AND GFSP ARE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND APPEAR TO HAVE GRID SCALE ISSUES WHICH TEND TO PUSH THE PCPN TOO FAR TO THE NORTH IN OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS. THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD A FARTHER SWD AXIS AS PER THE 12Z HWRF ARW AND THE 12Z NAM. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SWD BY APPROX 100 NM WITH ITS QPF AXIS FROM THE 00Z RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FARTHER SWD HWRF ARW AND NAM. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR PCPN AMTS MAY BE THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF ANY MCC. STILL...GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WIDESPREAD 1-1.5"+ AMTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCC...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMUM IN THE 2-3"+ RANGE POSSIBLE. SRN PLAINS... PW VALUES WL ALSO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SWD THRU THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION IN THIS HI MOISTURE AXIS WITH ENHANCED UVVS FROM SHRTWVS IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY ORGANIZING CONVECTION. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD...WITH AREAL AVG AMTS KEPT LIGHT..BUT WITH CAVEAT OF ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE. GTBASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED LOW FCST TO FORM OVR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WL KEEP VERY DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW TO ITS NORTHEAST ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE GTBASIN AND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WELL DEFINED UPR DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPR LOW FROM THE PLAINS WL SUPPORT MDT TO LOCALLY HVY PCPN AMTS THRU THE WASATCH AND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT HAS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO TX/AR RECENTLY WL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT PUSHES ENEWD THIS PERIOD THRU THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST ECMWF WAS FAVORED FOR THE VORT MOVEMENT AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS. MUCH ABOVE AVG PW VALUES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WL SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INVOF THE SYSTEM. AS IN PAST DAYS..ACTIVITY MAY CONTRACT NEAR THE CNTR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SAT MORNING AND THEN EXPAND OUTWARD DURG THE DAY SAT. AN AXIS OF 1-2" AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS DEPICTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CNTR THRU MOST OF THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION FLARES NEAR THE CNTR. UPR GTLKS INTO NRN NY...CNTRL NEW ENGLAND... THE VORT THAT INITIATED ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVR THE PLAINS LAST NIGHT EXPECTED TO PUSH ENEWD OUT OF THE UPR LAKES REGION AND INTO SRN ONTARIO/SRN QB TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS VORT TONIGHT OVR SRN ONTARIO/SRN QB AND DROP SEWD INTO NRN NY AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED NWD WITH ITS AXIS FROM 00Z AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST TO BRING PCPN SEWD AND WAS FAVORED..WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FASTER SOLN NOW GIVEN THE LATEST ECMWF. MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY..WITH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM A LIMITING FACTOR FOR VERY HEAVY AMTS...WITH AREAL AVG .50-1" AMTS DEPICTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 13/00Z 0.01 463689 459677 456671 454670 447668 438668 435669 432666 429661 426660 423657 418657 413661 410666 408671 408677 409688 415711 415720 413730 406747 399755 395757 390758 380763 375766 370770 356780 352789 352794 352799 357801 368799 370806 364814 357819 352827 347834 343841 340848 334853 333872 332877 334882 335887 338891 343891 346888 352882 355878 358876 361878 363883 365896 370905 374908 379906 381906 382909 381912 380919 381922 380933 373946 371954 368959 365962 350964 343966 337968 333971 325972 320974 316976 308978 301984 294989 288994 285997 282998 280001 278007 273020 267023 266029 271035 277038 294036 312033 330031 340030 351029 357028 362030 369034 369052 369054 366057 364061 364069 368076 369079 370085 369093 370097 365099 356100 349105 346105 343103 338103 334105 334109 338117 342125 345132 350139 356144 362149 370153 375154 377155 383162 387163 399164 407161 412162 416161 421155 425144 427136 429133 434127 439120 443110 447101 450092 452085 453079 454068 453055 452043 453032 460008 465991 457971 451963 446954 443945 444941 448938 454934 459926 462923 465924 473928 483941 485945 486954 487972 491988 499987 505986 508981 511971 514960 515955 514950 510937 509931 506924 499905 496898 495890 494872 491846 489831 483818 481806 480793 478773 476756 473743 470727 467715 463689 0.01 516181 516171 511161 507156 500150 496144 490144 483147 477148 471145 469139 469132 463128 459128 456130 456136 458139 457152 461159 467163 482169 489174 495180 500185 509187 514184 516181 0.01 279820 279813 277808 271804 263800 260796 256795 252798 250801 246807 243816 245820 248821 254824 262826 270828 277827 279823 279820 0.25 451726 448714 443703 439695 437689 435687 432685 426688 423691 423696 425717 426726 430738 434749 439757 444767 445774 445779 441798 440805 441818 439839 440848 439857 437867 438874 441880 443881 448881 455879 462885 467888 473884 476880 478876 479866 479855 479842 478832 472805 469792 466779 463766 459753 456745 453737 451726 0.25 445072 444048 444036 442018 441011 441002 442987 436959 433949 429937 425926 424918 425913 427900 424893 419891 414890 410888 405888 402885 400882 400879 401866 404857 406844 407817 408808 408803 407796 403787 399781 395778 392777 386779 380789 380798 376808 370829 365849 365860 368875 369887 370894 370896 373896 384894 388893 391900 392907 391912 390923 386935 384945 384951 386956 387960 386964 384969 377986 372993 367001 365008 365012 368013 373011 379007 381006 384002 387002 386025 382035 380039 378047 378053 379061 377065 374068 375075 380083 389088 397094 399098 400101 399105 395107 392109 383112 378115 374118 370121 365121 359119 353118 350119 350121 353124 362129 369134 374133 379130 397127 408126 417125 422123 426120 432108 437101 439098 441092 444079 445072 0.25 306004 306001 305999 304998 302997 299997 296997 294999 291001 289002 288004 287006 287009 288012 289013 292013 295012 297011 298011 300011 303009 305007 305006 306004 0.25 270817 269816 268814 266812 264810 261808 261807 257806 255807 254810 255813 256816 258817 259818 261819 263820 265820 268821 270818 270817 0.50 447734 445722 443716 440711 435701 433697 431699 428706 430714 432726 436737 437744 442750 444751 446748 447738 447734 0.50 474840 474833 472825 469811 467805 464800 457795 456784 456777 455774 453770 451767 450769 449780 448790 449795 450799 449804 449814 447822 446828 445833 445845 444855 444863 447865 452866 458872 461874 465875 468875 470872 473861 474849 474840 0.50 439088 438078 437070 437063 439050 439044 438036 436025 433015 431008 433000 435988 435977 433964 432960 430953 425943 421935 418922 415909 413903 410898 406896 403899 401904 397913 396923 394929 394934 394939 394946 393971 392974 393981 398989 399994 398999 396008 393019 392031 388039 386043 384046 384050 386055 391056 393058 391062 389065 389071 389077 392081 397083 401083 410084 413083 416087 422092 427094 434095 438092 439088 0.50 403814 402808 400802 398796 396793 391792 387796 381803 378811 376818 372838 370845 369855 369864 369870 371877 372883 374888 377890 381889 387885 391877 393868 398860 400851 401843 403822 403814 1.00 465831 465827 464823 463821 461820 459819 456820 455823 455827 457830 458834 460838 463841 464841 465840 465835 465833 465831 1.00 427989 427981 427973 426966 424958 420950 414940 411937 407937 404940 402947 401951 401958 401970 407992 407998 405003 402012 400023 398030 398038 401045 403049 406051 412052 421054 425053 427047 428041 429033 428025 426018 422009 421002 422998 427989 1.00 399820 395815 390813 384818 381824 382830 380836 374846 373853 373861 372867 373871 374876 377879 381880 385878 387873 388867 390859 392854 395848 396841 397828 399820 1.50 424033 423025 422021 419018 416014 414011 411011 407015 406022 406023 406030 409035 412039 416041 421041 422037 424033 1.50 422986 422978 421970 420963 418956 415952 412949 408947 405950 404958 405965 406973 408980 409984 412991 415993 420990 422986 1.50 386856 385853 385852 383850 381848 378849 377852 376854 376856 376860 376864 375868 375872 377875 378875 381876 384874 385872 386868 386864 386860 386858 386856 2.00 384869 383865 382862 381859 380862 379864 378867 377871 381873 383870 384869 $$