QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 307 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 11/1200 UTC THRU JUN 12/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CONCERNING THE UPPER VORTEX CURRENTLY INVOF THE LWR MS VLY... WEAK UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE..ACTING MORE LIKE A FORMER TROPICAL LOW..CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SGFNT CNVCTV RAINS..AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THRU THE PD AS IT GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NEWD WITH TIME. A STG AND MOIST SSWLY LLVL MSTR FETCH CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE LIFTING OUT SYSTEM UNDER BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING SHWR DVLPMNT. THE VERY HI PW AVBLTY AVBL FOR THE SYSTEM UNDER BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY HVY SHWRS WITH CELL INTERACTION EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INTENSE RNFL RATES OVR ISOLD AREAS. MODEL QPFS PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND GEM REGIONAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM PCPN WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SCENARIO. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR THE QPF. ...CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES... COMBO OF SHRTWV ENERGY BEING EJECTED FM THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROF AS WELL AS PIECES OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SLY FLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL FIRE WIDESPREAD CNVCTV RAINS ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA OF THE NATION THRU THE PD. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE..RELIED MORE ON MASS FIELD DETAILS FM THE ECMWF AND GEM REGIONAL RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL QPF FOR PCPN PLACEMENT. MODEL QPFS ALL OFFER HVY PCPN TOTALS OVR THE UPPER MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH SEEMS TO FIT THIS AREA BEING UNDER BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT WHILE A STG NWD MSTR FLUX IMPINGES ON AN E/W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE TWO OR MORE DISTINCT RNFL EVENTS HERE THRU THE PD AND MODEL QPFS DIFFER ON THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THE MAX RNFL TOTALS. STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE 16/12Z ECMWF WHICH WAS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN OPERATIONAL GFS BUT IN LINE WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL GFS PARALLEL RUN. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST..PROBLEMS ABOUT WITH WIDELY DIFFERENT MODEL QPFS. MODELS IN GNRL INDC SGFNT RNFL AMTS WILL OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND LOOKED MUCH OVERDONE..AS WELL AS DID THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT. THE GEM REGIONAL OFFERED A LESS AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO AND TOOK CNVCTN MORE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL HI PLAINS THAN OTHER GUIDANCE..A SEEMINGLY BETTER CHOICE. MEANWHILE..MODEL QPFS ARE OFFERING WIDELY VARYING CHOICES OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS/LWR MO VLY/UPPER MIDWEST REGION. FULLY EXPECT THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE HERE AS CNVCTN DVLPNG ALONG THE FRONT DVLPS INTO AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BNDRY. IN ADDITION..EXPECT THAT THE PIECES OF SUBTROP SHRTWV ENERGY ALONG N/S ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN ENHANCING CNVCTV DVLPMNT OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER FRIDAY EVNG AND NIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GEM REGIONAL/ECMWF MASS FIELD DETAILS HERE FOR THE QPF WHICH KEPT SFC DVLPMNT OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS MUCH FLATTER THAN THE GFS SCENARIO. ...WRN U.S... SHWRS WILL CONTINUE OVR THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN REGION IN DEFORMATION ZONE ASOCTD WITH THE DIGGING/AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. UPPER TROF. BLENDED MODEL QPFS HERE. KORTY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 12/12Z 0.01 525207 526201 525194 522184 518176 516171 512168 505162 497156 491150 489145 488140 486131 483121 483115 484110 489105 494101 499095 502090 506082 512067 514057 516049 516043 517036 516029 515020 513011 510003 506997 502992 498988 493983 491977 490970 488960 487948 487939 489915 493894 493887 492879 489862 484847 481834 476809 473799 471792 468783 463772 460765 454757 444746 434739 429735 424733 420734 415739 412745 411752 411757 412762 416772 420779 422784 418794 414800 409805 404813 400819 394826 386831 381834 377834 373832 370827 370822 368816 363811 357812 341817 337817 335815 334807 339795 340789 340782 338779 335778 332779 327785 324791 322797 321800 318802 307798 304801 301807 298812 291811 281806 277804 270799 264797 256798 251800 249803 247806 248811 254817 259821 268825 283821 287820 295820 301824 305829 310834 314837 324841 345853 352862 354871 356876 356881 354886 351890 347895 343903 329929 327937 327942 330947 333949 338949 349947 360938 369929 374927 379925 382922 387917 391912 397898 404887 408875 410858 412855 416854 419859 421866 421878 419886 417892 412906 405921 400928 393933 387936 380941 377942 376945 372947 367954 360963 350974 344978 339980 331982 323983 316984 310983 303984 298981 287974 294963 299953 302946 300943 297940 293938 289940 288946 284953 280959 278965 279971 278976 266987 262992 261997 261001 265016 270019 277021 281023 285024 289024 292024 294026 298031 302033 306033 313032 320031 326028 353020 364019 368019 374021 370026 363029 350034 343038 340043 339048 341052 348056 359057 365061 369068 374074 377075 375078 370080 366082 365086 366095 366114 370120 372123 373126 372129 371138 373144 383151 386153 388155 388161 385168 380173 369179 366182 366187 370194 375202 380208 383211 388212 394210 399208 401205 405198 409188 411183 416181 419179 420177 419174 417170 418164 421155 423150 425148 429147 432152 435160 440165 446170 448172 450177 449184 452187 459178 463174 468173 475176 480181 485187 490191 494197 493200 489201 482203 477207 449216 442218 440219 436222 434226 435230 443229 450226 454225 459226 463228 467226 469227 468231 464230 461233 455234 451238 454239 462240 470242 479245 483247 486250 491256 492258 496258 496254 495249 493246 492243 488240 485236 481234 480229 482223 484223 491225 499239 500243 503247 508252 512253 514251 517244 516228 514222 516216 520211 525207 0.25 494036 493032 490030 487032 487037 480042 474046 470051 466059 463068 463075 465080 471083 476079 482074 487068 488063 490059 491048 493038 494036 0.25 483909 482900 480890 477872 475857 472841 470828 466813 461799 458790 451775 445763 442760 439760 436763 434769 432778 431790 430801 429809 427813 425820 424832 424841 425849 426857 431867 432873 433880 432890 430898 426909 421919 416926 410934 405939 397944 389948 382954 370969 366977 364980 365987 367994 375996 385997 392001 392005 391009 389013 384023 380032 377040 376043 377047 378050 380055 384057 391060 397064 401067 405068 411069 416072 417078 415082 409088 402093 397100 395104 394108 393114 394118 399121 403121 411118 420116 427111 433108 444106 447105 450102 451096 449093 442083 443080 445077 449073 453063 451047 447036 444026 440020 434012 434002 434995 435987 443970 450965 458960 464953 469946 476937 480927 483917 483909 0.25 470149 470145 469141 468139 466136 466135 463133 460133 459135 458139 459141 461144 462145 465148 466149 468150 470149 0.25 402858 399849 397845 393842 389844 381851 375859 370869 366878 361889 356896 349906 345914 340925 339935 342939 348939 356932 364926 369924 375920 382913 387905 393893 398883 401871 402861 402858 0.25 265812 264810 263807 263806 260805 258806 257807 255807 255810 256813 257813 260815 263814 265813 265812 0.50 478915 477901 474888 472877 471865 470855 468845 462824 458811 454800 452794 447787 444784 441786 440789 438797 437805 434821 433829 431837 431843 433850 435859 437869 437878 436887 435894 433903 429916 421927 411939 407943 400947 396949 389953 381962 377967 376970 377973 380975 388986 392989 396993 399999 400004 399007 391020 385031 383037 382045 385050 391053 398057 404061 410062 418063 428064 433062 435057 434052 434046 434040 435032 432025 429019 427012 427002 429987 432979 435970 439963 442958 447954 452952 459949 463945 473929 476925 478920 478915 0.50 399859 397855 393852 388852 383856 377864 373872 369882 364890 354904 348913 344920 341929 341935 346937 352934 354931 361924 370920 374917 377914 387898 396880 398870 399859 0.50 419107 421103 419099 418098 415096 412095 409095 406097 406098 404102 403104 403106 401110 402113 403114 406114 407114 409113 412112 414110 415110 418108 419107 1.00 471908 470897 468886 465868 463850 458834 455826 451820 449819 446820 444826 443831 442839 442852 443870 443877 442884 440896 439910 439916 439919 443921 443924 440930 433937 427940 424938 420938 418939 413944 406951 400958 399961 400965 401970 400974 400979 401984 404989 407995 408002 407006 404011 399019 395025 393032 396044 398049 403052 412056 417057 422056 424054 424051 423045 422039 421030 419018 421987 423980 424975 430965 434951 439942 441937 446933 459933 466927 469920 471912 471908 1.00 394865 392862 389861 386862 382865 375877 369891 363902 353913 348918 345924 344931 347933 350932 355925 360920 366916 372913 376907 377900 384895 387890 391882 393877 394868 394865 1.50 465893 462876 459860 457849 455840 451836 449841 447856 447864 448873 446890 446898 446903 447907 451913 454919 460920 463918 465910 465901 465893 1.50 421959 421955 420953 417953 416956 415959 415960 414964 415967 416969 418967 419966 420963 421959 421959 1.50 415987 415983 415979 414978 411976 409980 410984 412986 413987 415988 415987 1.50 391874 389867 385867 383869 380874 378878 376882 374887 373893 373895 379895 382892 385887 388882 390878 391874 1.50 359917 356915 354916 351918 351919 349921 348923 347925 346927 346930 347931 350929 352925 353925 355922 356921 357919 359917 2.00 461903 461899 460894 460890 460886 459882 458878 457874 455870 455868 452870 452872 452876 451880 451882 451885 451889 451893 451897 452901 453905 455908 456909 459912 461907 461905 461903 2.00 386879 384877 383876 381877 379881 377885 377886 376890 378891 381889 382888 383886 384883 385881 386879 $$