EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
156 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010
 
...VALID 18Z SUN MAY 02 2010 - 00Z TUE MAY 04 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW BLF 15 SW 6V3 25 SSW TRI 35 WNW AVL 10 WNW RHP 10 SE DNN
15 ESE GAD BHM 10 NW TCL 30 SSW GTR 45 NE JAN 30 SE GWO 15 E GWO
50 W TUP 30 E OLV 40 WSW HOP 25 ESE HNB MGY 15 NW ZZV 10 WNW HLG
15 S LBE 15 ENE 2G4 10 W W99 20 N LWB 15 NNW BLF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
45 W I16 15 ENE CRW 20 NW 48I 25 ESE PKB 15 NNE UNI 45 SE ILN
30 SSE LUK 15 E FTK 20 NW BWG 10 SSE CKV 35 SSW CKV 40 SSE MKL
25 WSW TUP 35 WNW GTR 15 W GTR 10 E CBM 25 SE 1M4 15 WSW 8A0
10 SSW CHA TYS 45 W I16.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HSV 20 NE 1M4 30 E TUP 25 ENE TUP 35 NNW MSL 30 WSW BNA
25 NNE BNA GLW 40 NW SME 30 ESE LEX 30 NE JKL 35 SSW HTS
25 SSE JKL 10 N 1A6 15 N OQT 20 SE CSV 30 WNW CHA 10 SSE MDQ HSV.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKQ 45 NNE MDQ 10 NE MSL 15 N MSL
50 NW MDQ 15 SSE MQY 40 NW CSV 15 SW EKQ 30 S EKQ.

 
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS REASONING.  THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RNFL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VLY AND LOWER OH VLY AREA
WHERE A COMBO OF VERY HVY RAINS AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO SGFNT RUNOFF PROBLEMS.  FIRST OF ALL..THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO CHANGE BUT NOT QUICKLY ENUF TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS..AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS. A SGFNT NWD MSTR FLUX FM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES
TO BE LIFTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A VERY SLOW MOVG FRONTAL ZONE AS
PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY ARE SHEARED NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. 
MODELS ALL ARE FCSTG A MORE WLY WIND COMPONENT WITH TIME WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN ACTVTY SLOWLY ACCELERATING EWD ACROSS THE
OUTLOOKED AREA OVRNGT.  IN ANY CASE...INTENSE RNFL RATES REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL THAT TIME AS THE TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS..SOME OF
IT OVER AREAS ALREADY SATURATED BY PRIOR ACTVTY.  LOCALIZED AREA
COULD RECEIVE QUICK 2.00 INCH RNFL AMTS WITH SPOTTY 5.00 INCH AMTS
REMAINING POSSIBLE  OVR PORTIONS OF THE TN VLY.

KORTY

$$