EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
931 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010
 
...VALID 15Z SUN MAY 02 2010 - 12Z MON MAY 03 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW BLF 15 SW 6V3 25 SSW TRI 35 WNW AVL 10 WNW RHP 10 SE DNN
15 ESE GAD 20 W BHM 30 WNW TCL 40 SW GTR 40 NNE JAN 40 SSW GWO
20 NW GWO 10 E OLV 45 SSE PAH 10 SE HNB MGY 15 NW ZZV 10 WNW HLG
15 S LBE 15 ENE 2G4 10 W W99 20 N LWB 15 NNW BLF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
20 NNW I16 10 ENE 48I 10 WSW CKB 20 SE LHQ 30 NNE FFT 10 NE FTK
10 NE HOP 55 SW HOP 25 E MKL 40 W TUP 20 E GWO 40 ESE GWO CBM
20 SSE 1M4 20 SW 3A1 15 WSW 8A0 10 SSW CHA TYS 20 WNW I16
20 NNW I16.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S JKL 15 N OQT 20 SE CSV 30 WNW CHA 10 SSE MDQ 1M4
10 WNW 1M4 30 SSW TUP 45 SW TUP 35 WSW TUP 40 N TUP 55 E MKL
40 S CKV 25 NNW BNA 25 N GLW LEX 50 NNW JKL 35 W HTS 20 SW HTS
35 ENE JKL 25 S JKL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKQ 40 WSW CSV 40 SE MQY 25 N DCU
35 WSW MSL TUP 50 WNW MSL 30 WSW BNA 30 S BWG 15 NE GLW 25 S LEX
30 SE LEX 25 NNW LOZ 10 S EKQ 25 SSW EKQ.

 
THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RNFL CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VLY
AND LOWER OH VLY AREA WHERE A COMBO OF VERY HVY RAINS AND WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SGFNT RUNOFF PROBLEMS.  FIRST
OF ALL..THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED WITH A
SGFNT NWD MSTR FLUX FM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING LIFTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A VERY SLOW MOVG FRONTAL ZONE AS PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY
ARE SHEARED NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH PWS NEAR 2.00 INCHES
AVBL FOR SUPPORT..AND BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO AID THE
LIFTING PROCESS..EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WHEN RNFL TOTALS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 5.00 INCHES.  MODELS SUGGEST MORE WLY FLOW WILL BECOME
INVOLVED BY TGNT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE RNFL
PATTERN AFTER THAT TIME.

CURRENTLY..LAST NIGHTS ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION WITH ITS EMPHASIS ON VERY HVY RNFL TOTALS ACROSS THE
TN VLY AND LWR OH VLY WITH LESSER AMTS TO THE SOUTH OVR THE CNTRL
GULF REGION.  THIS SEEMS TO FIT WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING A CNVCTV BAND ORIENTED FM THE NE TO THE SW ACROSS THE
TN/LWR OH VLYS.  INTENSE RNFL RATES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BAND
AS IT REMAINS VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 TO
10 HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE TRAINING OF CELLS.  IN ANY CASE..COULD
SEE QUICK 2.00 INCH AMTS WITHIN A GOOD PORTION BULK OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA WITH TOTALS APCHG 7.00 INCHES PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TN VLY.
 

KORTY

$$