EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
244 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010
 
...VALID 06Z SUN MAY 02 2010 - 12Z MON MAY 03 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW CKB 48I 25 NNE BKW 15 WSW BLF 20 S TRI 20 E 1A5
15 NNW LZU CCO 10 WSW AUO 10 WNW TOI 25 SSE GZH 40 SW JKA
10 W 1B7 15 NNW ASD 10 ENE JAN 10 SW GWO 35 N GWO 25 ESE SGT
30 SSE M19 15 ENE JBR 20 SE HSB 10 NW BMG 30 NW WMO 20 SW LHQ
20 ENE PKB 25 WSW CKB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
HTS 40 W I16 LNP 35 SW TRI 15 NW 1A5 10 SSE RHP 15 NNW 47A
30 NE ANB 30 ENE EET 15 WSW BHM 25 NW BHM 15 SE 1M4 30 E CBM
15 NNE CBM 25 W GTR 25 SE GWO 40 NNE GWO 25 WNW M97 25 SE JBR
10 WSW DYR 25 SSE PAH 35 E M30 20 SW OWB 10 ENE EVV 20 N HNB
30 NW LOU 30 NNW FFT 25 S LUK 45 ESE LUK 50 W HTS HTS.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW JKL 15 N LOZ 20 WSW 1A6 25 NNW CHA 35 NE MDQ DCU
10 NW MSL 40 WNW MSL 40 NNW TUP 10 S MEM 15 W NQA 10 E DYR
30 SE PAH 30 NNW HOP 10 SSW FTK 35 NE LEX 25 WNW JKL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE EKQ 15 SW OQT 40 W RHP 10 WSW DNN
35 SW RMG 20 NW ALX 20 NNW GZH 55 SE MEI 10 S GTR 30 NE TUP
50 E MKL 20 SE CKV 15 SSW BWG 15 SE GLW 20 SSE EKQ.

 
PERSISTENT AND INTENSE NWD MSTR FLUX FM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY SHWRS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A FRONT AS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE SHEARED NEWD AHEAD OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROF.  MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RNFL TOTALS INVOF THE TN VLY/SOUTHEAST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PW VALUES 2 INCHES)...UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND BNDRY
LYR PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN CNVCTV RAINS REPEATING
FOR A MULTIPLE HOUR PERIOD.   

MOST MODEL QPFS..THOUGH DIFFERING WITH PLACEMENT DETAILS..ARE ALL
SHOWING MAXIMA ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST. 
THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF NMM AND ARW CONTINUE TO SHOW 5-10 INCH
POTENTIAL...WHICH FOR THE 00Z RUN WAS CENTERED IN AL/ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EAST TN/NORTHWEST GA/EASTERN MS. 
THE EXTREME TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE IN COVERAGE BUT LOCAL INTENSE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GIVEN STRONG ALONG STREAM VARIATIONS IN THE
300 MB JET AND INCREASING PW VALUES IN AL TO 2-2.5 IN THE GEFS
MEAN FORECAST.

PETERSEN

$$