EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
925 PM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010
 
...VALID 03Z SUN MAY 02 2010 - 00Z MON MAY 03 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 N LNP 15 S OQT 10 WNW BHM 10 ESE NMM 25 E JAN 15 WSW GWO
45 NNW GWO 35 ESE SGT 10 NNW SGT 20 W JBR 15 SSW HSB 40 SSE BMG
15 ENE ILN 20 S LHQ 10 N PKB 25 SE PKB 20 W I16 30 N LNP.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
15 WSW OWB 10 NW SDF 20 N FFT 45 WSW UNI 20 W 3I2 10 ESE HTS
25 SSE JKL 15 SW 1A6 25 W CHA 25 N 8A0 25 SE 1M4 20 SW GTR
30 ESE GWO 35 SE UTA 20 WNW AWM 25 S CIR 30 ENE M30 15 WSW OWB.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MDQ 10 S DCU 20 NE CBM 30 NW GTR 40 WSW TUP 40 W TUP 20 NE NQA
40 S PAH 30 NNW HOP 25 S FTK 35 NE LEX 30 NW JKL 20 SSE SME MDQ.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUP 30 SSW MKL 35 NNE MKL 10 E CKV
20 NNE GLW 40 NW EKQ 15 WNW EKQ 35 NW CSV 30 SSE MQY 10 NNE MSL
20 N TUP.

 
AGAIN..LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH THIS WELL
ADVERTISED EXCESSIVE EVENT.  SOME MINOR CHANGES FM PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  A PERSISTENT CHANNEL
OF DEEP-LAYERED CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE TN VLY WITH PWS APCHG
2.00 INCHES AVBL FOR SUPPORT.  THE ENERGY ASOCTD WITH THE SHRTWV
BEING KICKED OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND NOW TRIGGERING SHWRS OVR
THE LWR MS VLY WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO FIRE HVY CNVCTV RAINS OVR THE
TN VLY TNGT AND THRU THE DAY TMW.  THE 18Z RUN OF THE GEM REGIONAL
HAS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON ACTVTY EARLY IN ITS FCST PD AND IT
CONTINUES TO FCST VERY HVY TOTALS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. BROADLY
DIV FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE TO ENHANCE THE LIFTING PROCESS WHILE AN
INTENSE NLY MSTR FLUX INTO THE ARE CONTINUES UNABATED FM THE GULF.
RNFL TOTALS OF 2.00 TO 3.00 INCHES APPEAR PSBL IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH AMTS EXCEEDING 5.00 INCHES VERY LIKELY OVER LOCALIZED
AREAS.

FINALLY..WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMTS IN EXCESS OF 8.00 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TN VLY WITH SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS RECEIVING TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES..A CRITERIA
THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN MET OVR SOME SPOTTY AREAS.

KORTY

$$