EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 PM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010
 
...VALID 18Z SAT MAY 01 2010 - 00Z MON MAY 03 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 N LNP 15 S OQT 15 NW BHM 20 WSW MEI 30 NE HEZ 30 S GLH
15 NE LLQ 15 ESE LRF POF 15 ENE CUL 20 E BAK 15 WNW 4I3
25 ENE PHD 10 NNE HLG 10 ESE PKB 35 W I16 30 N LNP.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
10 NNW OWB LUK 15 SW LCK 15 SE LHQ 25 NNW HTS 15 SSW JKL
20 W 1A6 40 WNW CHA 10 ESE MDQ 10 SSE CBM 20 SSE GWO 30 N GWO
10 SE UTA 30 SSW JBR 20 SW CIR 25 SSE HSB 10 NNW OWB.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 N MDQ 15 N 1M4 20 SW TUP 45 W TUP 30 SSE OLV 15 SE HKA
25 S PAH 30 E OWB 40 SSE LUK 45 NNW JKL 15 E SME 15 N MDQ.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE MKL 15 WSW BWG 40 NE GLW 20 WNW EKQ
40 NW CSV 25 SSE MQY 15 N MSL 20 NNE TUP 35 NW TUP 10 NE MKL
45 NE MKL.

 
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH THIS WELL ADVERTISED
EXCESSIVE EVENT.  HOWEVER...AGAIN HAVE EXPANDED PREVIOUS OUTLOOK
AS A PERSISTENT AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IMPINGES ON THE AREA WITH
PWS APCHG 2.00 INCHES AVBL FOR SUPPORT.  IN ADDITION...HAVE ADDED
AREA WHERE AMTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED FIVE INCHES THOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF AXIS
GIVEN THE UNKNOWN INFLUENCE OF MESOSCALE FORCING.  TO THIS POINT
IN TIME..ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF.  THE NAM IS OUT TO LUNCH TODAY AND THE
GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGAIN FAR TOO THE NORTHWEST IF ITS FEEDBACK VERT
VEL/VORT CNTRS ARE INDICATIVE OF PROBLEMS.  THIS BEING SAID..THIS
PD IS GOING TO BE REALLY BIG AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED
AND LIKELY TO REPEAT OVR AREAS ALREADY SATURATED BY PREVIOUS RNFL.
 BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE LIFTING PROCESS WHILE AN
INTENSE NLY MSTR FLUX INTO THE ARE CONTINUES UNABATED FM THE GULF.
 RNFL TOTALS OF 2.00 TO 3.00 INCHES APPEAR PSBL IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH AMTS EXCEEDING 5.00 INCHES
LIKELY OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

FINALLY..WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMTS IN EXCESS OF 8.00 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED..WITH SOME VERY LOCALIZED AREAS ALREADY EXCEEDING
THAT..AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORM TOTAL AMTS APCHG
AND/OR EXCEED 12-15 INCHES OVER SOME SPOTS.

KORTY

$$