EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
948 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010
 
...VALID 15Z SAT MAY 01 2010 - 12Z SUN MAY 02 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNE MDQ 20 SW MSL 40 WSW TUP 25 ENE GLH LLQ 35 ESE M89
25 NNW LRF 30 W POF 20 SW MDH 15 W HSB 15 NNE HNB 25 NNE LOU
15 WSW FFT 35 NNE SME 20 NE LOZ 25 NNE 1A6 10 N OQT 10 S CSV
35 NNE MDQ.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
20 SSE BWG 30 NE MQY 20 ESE MQY 45 NNW MDQ 35 NNE TUP
40 SSE UTA 35 NE LLQ 10 NNE PBF 15 E SRC 25 ESE POF 25 SSE HSB
15 NNE OWB 15 WSW FTK 25 NNW GLW 20 SSE BWG.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW M97 20 S BYH 40 NE MKL 45 WSW BNA 40 SW BNA 40 NNW MSL
40 NNW TUP 30 SSE OLV 20 SE UTA 20 S UTA 30 ESE SGT 30 NW M97.

 
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING.  HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND UPPED EXCESSIVE POTENTIAL TO HIGH RISK AS A
PERSISTENT AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IMPINGES ON THE AREA WITH PWS
APCHG 2.00 INCHES AVBL FOR SUPPORT.  THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WOULD ARGUE FOR ACTVTY LIFTING NWD PER MODEL QPF
FCSTS..WHILE THE ADDITION OF MESOSCALE FORCING WOULD SUGGEST A
MORE SRN PLACEMENT.  TO THIS POINT IN TIME..MESOSCALE FORCING HAS
RESULTED IN THE BEST ACTVTY FARTHER SOUTH THAN SUGGESTED BY MODEL
QPFS.  THIS BEING SAID..TODAY AND VERY LIKELY TMW..ARE GOING TO BE
REALLY BIG AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED.   THE SHRTWV
LIFTING OUT OF TX WILL ENHANCE THE VERT LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND TNGT AS BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT ENHANCES THE
LIFTING PROCESS..WHILE AN INTENSE NLY MSTR FLUX INTO THE ARE
CONTINUES UNABATED.  RNFL TOTALS OF 2.00 TO 3.00 INCHES APPEAR
PSBL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH AMTS AT OR
EXCEEDING 5.00 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

FINALLY..WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMTS IN EXCESS OF 8.00 INCHES ARE
LIKELY..SOME VERY LOCALIZED AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THAT..AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORM TOTAL AMTS APCH AND/OR EXCEED
12-15 INCHES OVER SOME SPOTS.

KORTY

$$