EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
233 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010
 
...VALID 06Z SAT MAY 01 2010 - 12Z SUN MAY 02 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE FTK 60 N MSL 25 SSW TUP 15 E GLH 40 NNE ELD LZK
25 NE ARG 10 NE HSB 10 N BMG 20 ENE GEZ 20 W CVG 35 ESE FTK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 NNE HOP 15 ESE MKL 20 SSE UTA 20 ESE SGT 15 SE JBR 20 S CIR
EHR 30 ENE HNB 25 WNW FTK 25 SSE OWB 25 NNE HOP.

 

ERN AR TO LOWER OH VALLEY...

NEARLY STNRY MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL PROVIDE FOR A PERSISTENT AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN TN/KY...WHERE PW
VALUES ARE FCST TO HOVER UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES.  BATCH OF
CONVECTION CROSSING THE AREA EARLY TODAY SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE SAME REGION TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE BASE
OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH.  STRONG SLY INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH NEARLY STNRY BNDRY...PROVIDING A SETUP FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  USED A BLEND OF THE
00Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WHICH SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMTS
CENTERED ON WRN TN/KY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 5 INCH PLUS
TOTALS.

HEDGE

$$