EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
920 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2010
 
...VALID 03Z SAT MAY 01 2010 - 00Z SUN MAY 02 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
TXK MWT 30 ENE RUE 15 ENE UNO FAM 10 ESE SLO 35 SSW EHR
40 WNW BWG 25 NE CKV 25 SE MKL 25 SSE UTA 20 SSE LLQ 30 N DTN
TXK.

 

AR/SE MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN/NW MS...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THOUGH HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT
RISK AREA SLIGHTLY WWD GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  GOES
SOUNDER AND GPS PWS SHOW SOME VERY HIGH PWS APCHG 1.9 INCHES
BUILDING NWD ACRS NRN LA INTO SRN AR WHICH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING HAVE RESULTED IS SOME VERY HI SFC BASED CAPES ACRS THIS
REGION.  RADAR HAS SHOWN A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH
SEVERAL LINES DVLPG ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO NE TX AND SRN
AR.  THE STG MSTR FLUX..INCRSG DIV ALOFT WITH TIME AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACRS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AND COULD SEE QUICK
LOCALIZED 2.00 INCH RNFL TOTALS WITH 3.00 TO 5.00 INCH TOTALS
BEING POSSIBLE THRU THE FCST PD.

NRN FL...
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG LEFT EXIT
REGION OF NRN GULF JET CONTINUES TO FEED OFF SOME VERY HIGH PWS
THAT HAVE WORKED INLAND FROM THE NRN GULF SUPPORTING RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 2 INCH PER HR IN SOME SPOTS.  EXPECT SOME ISOLD STG
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HRS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS CORE OF JET APCHS AND
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD NWD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 

SULLIVAN

$$