EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2011
 
...VALID 18Z MON MAY 02 2011 - 00Z WED MAY 04 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
PHD 25 WNW UNI 50 WNW HTS 25 SSW FFT HOP 30 W MKL 25 W UTA
10 SE SGT 30 ENE M89 HOT 20 S RUE 10 E FLP 45 SW FAM 10 N SAR
15 N FOA 20 WNW RSV 15 ENE EYE 15 SSE FDY 15 SSW CLE 20 SSE CWPS
30 WNW ROC 15 S GTB 20 WSW SLK 15 NW PLB 15 NNW CWHY 40 NW GNR
30 W GNR 20 NNE BML MPV 15 W GFL 30 NNW MSV 30 W AVP IPT
25 NNW IPT ELM 10 N ELZ 20 NNW BFD 15 WSW FKL PHD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
15 ESE LOU FTK 30 NW HOP DYR 15 NNW SGT 15 N LRF 35 WNW POF
20 N MWA 15 WNW LWV 20 W BAK 10 SSE GEZ 20 NW SGH 20 NNE OSU
15 SSE LUK 15 ESE LOU.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
CGI 10 WSW CUL 15 N HNB 25 NE HNB 10 SE EHR 15 E PAH 35 S CIR
BYH 10 SE M19 20 SW ARG 15 NE POF CGI.

 
MODELS AGREE THAT THE COMBO OF ENERGY ASOCTD WITH THE SHRTWV TROF
CURRENTLY BEING EJECTED FM THE SRN ROCKIES AREA AND THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV TROF OVR THE N CNTRL U.S. WILL FIRE SHWRS ALONG A
BAROCLINIC BAND LYING FM THE NRN NEW ENG SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. 
THE MOST SGFNT ACTVTY WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED FM THE MIDDLE OH
VLY AREA SWWD ACROSS ARKANSAS AS WEAK WVS TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL
BAND AS WELL AS STGLY FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL
AID THE LIFTING PROCESSES.  MORE THAN AMPLE MSTR AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THE CELLS AND/OR CNVCTV AREAS REPEATING OVR
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RESULT IN VRY HVY RNFL TOTALS HERE WHERE FFG
NUMBERS ARE VERY LO.  SPOTTY 3.00 INCH RNFL TOTALS WITH WIDESPREAD
1.00 TO 1.50 INCH AMTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE..WHILE FFG NUMBERS ARE HIER FM THE UPPER OH VLY NEWD TO
NRN NEW ENG...INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASOCTD WITH THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROF OVR THE CNTRL U.S. AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS COULD RESULT
IN SPOTTY AREAS OF HVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE DAY TMW
WHERE VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST.  COULD SEE SPOTTY
1.50 INCH TOTALS HERE.

KORTY
$$