EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
910 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2011
 
...VALID 15Z MON MAY 02 2011 - 12Z TUE MAY 03 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HRO 20 NE HRO 30 N UNO 20 WSW SAR SAR 20 WNW BMG 20 ENE GEZ
15 NNW SGH 10 NE SGH ILN 20 NNE LEX 20 N GLW 30 SW BWG 20 E MKL
35 SW UTA 25 N ELD 10 WSW TXK 10 NW OSA 20 N GVT DUA 15 SE JSV
HRO.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 NNW RUE 30 SSE HRO 10 E BPK 15 ENE UNO 25 SE FAM 10 E FWC
30 N HNB 35 SSE BAK 10 E LOU 20 W BWG 40 NE MKL 10 NE AWM
20 S SGT 25 SE M89 30 ESE DEQ 15 WSW DEQ 30 WNW DEQ 35 SSW RKR
25 SSE FSM 25 NNW RUE.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WNW M97 25 SSW LIT 30 ENE DEQ 30 NNE DEQ 20 WNW MWT
15 SW RUE 25 SSE FLP 35 SE UNO 15 WNW POF 20 S MWA 10 WSW EVV
HNB 30 W FTK 30 SE OWB 45 SSE PAH 35 WNW M97.

 
OTHER THAN TO ADJUST AREA ACROSS LWR/MID MS VLY A TAD NWWD BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA..KEPT THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IN PLACE
AS WELL AS ITS ACCOMPANYING DISCUSSION.

MADDOX TYPE SYNOPTIC FF PATRN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS PD AS DEEP LAYERED
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF SRN STREAM UPR TROF WORKING EWD ACRS THE SRN HI
PLAINS CONTINUES TO PARALLEL SLOW MOVING NE/SW ORIENTED COLD
FRONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN
THE PAST 24 HRS..BUT THE ADDITION OF WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE ALREADY SATURATED CONDS AND EXISTING
FLOODING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY THRU OVER MUCH OF ARK INTO WRN KY WHERE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS HAVE LOWERED LOWERED THE 3 HR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS
TO LESS THAN .50 INCH IN SPOTS.  THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED STG
SWLY MSTR FLUX AND DIFFLUENT UPR JET WILL SUPPORT A GENL SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCH ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM SE OK NEWD INTO SW OH WITH EMBDD
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY WHERE BETTER TRAINING OCCURS.  A HIGH RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINS IS DEPICTED FOR MUCH OF CNTL/NE AR NEWD INTO
SRN IN/WRN KY GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINS ON TOP OF VERY SATURATED
GROUND.  

KORTY
$$