EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
231 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2011
 
...VALID 06Z MON MAY 02 2011 - 12Z TUE MAY 03 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW AJG 20 NW WMO 20 SSE ILN 10 N GLW 60 SSW CKV UTA
25 WSW LLQ TXK 10 NW OSA 20 N GVT DUA 15 SE JSV 15 W BPK
15 SSE SAR 10 SW AJG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 WNW CGI 25 NNE EVV 35 SSE BAK 10 E LOU 20 W BWG 40 NE MKL
10 NE AWM 20 S SGT 25 SE M89 30 ESE DEQ 15 WSW DEQ 30 WNW DEQ
35 SSW RKR 25 SSE FSM 25 WNW CGI.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE SGT 20 WNW PBF 10 WNW M89 25 WSW MWT 30 NNW MWT
15 NNE RUE 35 SE UNO 15 WNW POF 20 S MWA 10 WSW EVV HNB 30 W FTK
30 SE OWB 45 SSE PAH 20 ENE SGT.

 

MADDOX TYPE SYNOPTIC FF PATRN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS PD AS DEEP LAYERED
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF SRN STREAM UPR TROF WORKING EWD ACRS THE SRN HI
PLAINS CONTINUES TO PARALLEL SLOW MOVING NE/SW ORIENTED COLD
FRONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN
THE PAST 24 HRS..BUT THE ADDITION OF WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE ALREADY SATURATED CONDS AND EXISTING
FLOODING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY THRU OVER MUCH OF ARK INTO WRN KY WHERE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS HAVE LOWERED LOWERED THE 3 HR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS
TO LESS THAN .50 INCH IN SPOTS.  THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED STG
SWLY MSTR FLUX AND DIFFLUENT UPR JET WILL SUPPORT A GENL SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCH ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM SE OK NEWD INTO SW OH WITH EMBDD
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY WHERE BETTER TRAINING OCCURS.  A HIGH RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINS IS DEPICTED FOR MUCH OF CNTL/NE AR NEWD INTO
SRN IN/WRN KY GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINS ON TOP OF VERY SATURATED
GROUND.  

SULLIVAN 
$$