EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2011
 
...VALID 18Z SUN MAY 01 2011 - 00Z TUE MAY 03 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
BWG 40 N MSL GLH TYR AQR HAO BWG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
30 NNW RUE CGI HNB 35 SSW CKV 40 NNE GLH 3T1 25 WNW PRX
30 NNW RUE.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW LLQ OSA 25 SSE RKR 25 WNW ARG 40 SSW EHR MKL 20 NNW LLQ.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM TXK 30 NNE DEQ BVX 35 NNE DYR MEM.

 
...ARKLATX NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
NO MAJOR CHNGS TO EARLIER OUTLOOK AS THE PTRN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
STAGNANT OVR THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANLYS SHOWS A FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THRU THE REGION WITH SVRL WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING UP THE
BNDRY. MIDLVL SHRTWVS/IMPULSES ARE ALSO LIFTG NEWD...OVR THE BNDRY
AND PROVIDING DEEP LYRD LIFT. THE CLOSED LOW OVR THE 4-CORNERS
REGION WL MOVE VRY SLOWLY AND CONT TO DIRECT PIECES OF ENERGY OVR
THE REGION...WITH SVRL MORE PDS OF HVY RNFL. MDLS CONT TO SHOW THE
AIRMASS ALNG/S OF THE SFC BNDRY WL BCM SOMEWHAT UNSTBL...BUT THERE
REMAINS A CAP THAT SHLD HELP LIMIT THE SRN/SERN EXTENT OF CNVCTV
DVLPMENT. MID/UPR SPLIT FLOW WL REMAIN INTACT WITH STG UPR
DIFL/DVRG THAT WL PROVIDE PERSISTENT DEEP LYRD ASCENT. DEEP MSTR
IS ALRDY IN PLC AND WL CONT TO BE REPLENISHED BY A MOD/STG LLJ AND
DEEP LYRD SRLY FLOW THAT WL CONT TO TAP INTO EPAC/GULF/CARIBBEAN
MSTR. PWS IN THE 1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE WL BE COMMON....WHICH IS
ARND TWO STDS ABV NRML. THE MOD/STG LLJ WL SUPPORT CONT MSTR
FLUX/TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION...WITH 8H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES 2-3
STDS ABV NRML THRU TNGT...THEN THEY BEGIN TO BACK OFF ON MON. MDL
FCST SOUNDGS CONT TO SHOW VRY MOIST PROFILES WITH LAPSE RATES ARND
6 DEG C/KM...TALL/SKINNY CAPES AND NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW FM THE
JUST ABV THE SFC INTO THE UPR LVLS. ADDTNL TRAING TWD THE NE WL
CONT THIS PD...WITH ONLY A SLOW SEWD DROP OF THE MAIN AXIS OF HVY
RNFL. XPCT LCL TWO INCH PER HR RATES WITH A RIBBON OF 4-6 INCH
RNFL FM THE ARKLATX NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY REGION.

ECKERT
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