EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
936 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2011
 
...VALID 15Z SUN MAY 01 2011 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
BWG 25 NE MKL OLV GLH TYR FTW AQR CUL BWG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
RKR CGI 25 SSW OWB HOP AWM LLQ 3T1 TKI RKR.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW LLQ GVT 25 SSE RKR 25 WNW ARG PAH 40 SSE PAH 15 W AWM
20 NNW LLQ.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBF 10 NNW TXK LBR 30 NNE DEQ BVX
30 NNE HKA 35 WNW M97 PBF.

 
...ARKLATX NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
ONGOING DANGEROUS HVY RNFL EVENT WL CONT TO EXPAND INTO THIS
AFTN/EVE AND CONT BEYOND THIS TIME PD AS THE OVERALL LRG SCALE
PTRN REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT. 01/12Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS A CDFNT FM
THE GRT LKS SWWD TO LOW PRES OVR SRN IL...THEN CONTG INTO WRN TX.
MID/UPR FLOW REGIME SHOWS LRG SCALE SPLIT FLOW DVLPG OVR THE
REGION WITH UPR JET COUPLING SUPPORTG A LRG REGION OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP LYRD ASCENT. SVRL MIDLVL IMPULSES ARE SEEN IN
WV SATL/MDL GUID THAT WL CONT TO LIFT NEWD AND OVR THE REGION...FM
A CLSD LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MSTR CONTS TO POOL ALNG THE
SFC BNDRY WITH A RIBBON OF 60 SFC DWPTS AND PWS 1.50-1.75 INCHES
ACRS NRN TX INTO THE LWR OH VLY. VRY STG 8H THETA-E RDG IS IN PSTN
AND IS FCST TO REMAIN INTACT THRU THE PD. OBSVD RAOB AND MDL FCST
SOUNDGS CONT TO SHOW VRY MOIST PROFILES WITH LAPSE RATES ARND 6
DEG C/KM...TALL/SKINNY CAPES AND NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW FM THE JUST
ABV THE SFC TO THE UPR LVLS. LLJ IS QUITE STG THIS MRNG AND IS
FCST TO REMAIN STG THRU THE PD THAT WL REPLENISH MSTR/INSTBLTY. 8H
MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES ARE FCST TO INCRS THRU TDA WITH THE NOSE OF
STGR FLUX AIMED INTO THE ARKLATX...THEN LIFTG NEWD TNGT. MDLS ARE
STGLY SUPPORTG TRAING ACRS THIS REGION...WITH ONLY A SLOW SEWD
DROP TO THE MAIN AXIS OF HVY RNFL. XPCT LCL TWO INCH PER HR RATES
WITH A RIBBON OF 4-6 INCH RNFL TOTALS FM THE ARKLATX NEWD INTO THE
LWR OH VLY REGION.

ECKERT
$$