EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2011
 
...VALID 06Z SUN MAY 01 2011 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSE EHR 35 NNE HOP 25 NE MKL OLV 20 SSW UTA 35 SW LLQ
25 NNE DTN 25 E LNC 10 WNW LNC DAL GYI 10 SSW AQR 20 E AQR
10 E FSM 10 ESE FLP 15 W CUL 15 SSE EHR.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
20 S RKR 35 W RUE 35 SSW FLP 30 WNW ARG 15 SW CGI 15 E PAH
40 SSE PAH AWM 35 SE SGT 30 W LLQ 30 ESE TXK 25 ESE OSA
15 NW 3T1 10 S GVT 15 E TKI 35 N GVT 25 NW PRX 20 S RKR.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 W UTA 35 SW PBF 25 E TXK 25 WSW TXK OSA 10 E SLR 15 SSW PRX
20 NNW LBR 25 NW MWT 25 NE RUE 15 NW BVX 15 SW POF 15 SSW CIR
10 N DYR 20 W M97 25 W UTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW M89 15 WNW TXK 15 SW DEQ 10 NE MWT
15 WNW SRC 30 ENE ARG 20 SW BYH 15 ENE SGT 30 SSW M89.

 
...NE TX/AR/EXTREME LOWER OH VALLEY...
ANOTHER DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO SETTING UP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS THIS PD.  COLD FRONT PRESSING EWD
ACRS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL STALL ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS THIS PD AS FLAT RIDGE HOLDS ACRS THE SE U.S.  A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE FRONT IN E TX LATE SUN AND BEGIN TO
LIFT NEWD ACRS THE ARKLATX REGION IN RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM UPR
TROF MOVG EWD OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  EARLY SUN..SHOULD SEE
STG CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND PUSH EWD FROM AR INTO PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY WITH DIMINISHING INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL JET QUICKLY BACKS
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS MRNG.  THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET ACRS NE TX IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS WITH APCHG UPR
TROF SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A RAPIDLY EXPANDING AREA OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUN FROM NE
TX/SE OK ENEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY.  WITH THE
MID AND UPR FLOW MORE OR LESS BECOMING PARALLEL WITH THE SFC
FRONT...THE THREAT OF TRAINING WILL BE QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY FROM
NE TX ACRS MOST OF SW/CNTL/NE AR AND INTO THE EXTREME LOWER OH
VALLEY SUN HIGHT.  COMBINATION OF STGR MSTR FLUX..AT LEAT 3 STDS
ABOVE NORMAL..AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT..WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 6 INCH RAINS FROM NE TX INTO SE MO WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACRS SW TO NE AR.  THESE RAINS ON TOP OF WHAT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
RESULT IN SERIOUS RUNOFF PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT.    

SULLIVAN 
$$