EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
208 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011
 
...VALID 06Z WED APR 27 2011 - 12Z THU APR 28 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE TCL 25 SSW GTR 30 NNE JAN 20 ESE MLU 15 W MLU 25 NW MLU
35 SW LLQ 35 NE LLQ 30 ESE SGT 15 NW AWM 25 NW NQA 30 SE POF
20 ENE POF 30 NNE POF 20 WSW MDH FOA 15 WNW HUF 25 NE HUF
10 NNE BMG 10 SW BAK 35 NW CVG 20 WNW HAO 15 NNW OSU AKR
10 NE JHW 20 S BUF 30 NW ELZ 25 ESE BFD 10 W LBE 10 NNW CRW
20 SE JKL 25 ENE CSV 30 SSE CSV CHA RMG 25 E GAD 15 ENE BHM
20 ENE TCL.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
30 E ILN 25 SSW LHQ 20 S ZZV 20 SE ZZV 25 N PKB 20 ENE UNI
35 N JKL 15 NW LOZ EKQ 45 NW CHA 35 NNW 4A9 15 W 4A9 30 NW BHM
35 SSE 1M4 25 ESE CBM 40 WSW GTR 35 ESE GWO 35 SSW GWO 25 S GLH
10 WSW GLH 25 NNE GLH 40 SSW UTA 10 E UTA 15 E M97 25 SSE CIR
25 S EHR 20 NW SDF LUK 30 E ILN.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE MDQ 20 E 1M4 25 NNE CBM 35 SSW TUP 15 ENE GWO 10 NW GWO
35 SSE OLV 20 SE MKL 55 SW CKV CKV 30 N GLW 35 NE GLW 30 SSW GLW
35 SSE MQY 20 NNE MDQ 10 SSE MDQ.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MKL 45 SW MQY 30 NNW MDQ 20 NNW MDQ
DCU 20 W 1M4 10 S TUP 25 W TUP 45 N TUP 45 SE MKL.

 
IN ADDITION INTO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ONGOING CNVCTV RAINS..THE
EXCESSIVE RNFL OUTLOOK IS PREDICATED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
ONGOING CNVCTN INVOF THE LWR MS VLY WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY ALLOWING
THE BEST ACTVTY TO SHIFT OR REFORM NEWD OVR THE SRN PORTION OF TN
VLY.  ALL MODEL QPFS ARGUING FOR THAT SCENARIO..BUT THE WILL TEND
TO BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH THE MAX THREAT
AREA BASED ON THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING.  IN
ADDITION..ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDCS A SURGE OF DEEP-LAYERED MSTR
NEWD THRU THE NRN PORTION OF THE TN VLY INTO THE MID/UPPER OH RIV
VLY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SGFNT CNVCTV RAINS ALONG THAT
AXIS THERE.  NEEDLESS TO SAY..MSTR..LIFT..AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVBL IN LARGE QUANTITIES TO SUPPORT THIS EVENT PER MODEL
GUIDANCE..WITH AN EXTREMELY FVBL COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AVBL THRU
THE PD TO ENHANCE THE LIFTING PROCESSES.  LOCALIZED 1.00 TO 1.50
INCH RNFL AMTS IN AN HOUR OR TWO ARE PSBL ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
OUTLOOK AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTVTY FOCUSED OVR THE TN VLY WHERE
AMTS IN EXCESS OF 5.00 INCHES THRU THE PD ARE PSBL.

KORTY
$$