EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
930 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011
 
...VALID 03Z WED APR 27 2011 - 00Z THU APR 28 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MLU 20 S SHV GGG 15 SW 4F4 10 WNW OSA DEQ 20 NNW MWT 35 NE RUE
FAM 10 ESE 1H2 EYE 25 SE MIE 10 NW DAY 10 WNW SGH 15 N ILN
20 SE LUK 20 NNE LEX SME 10 WNW CSV 15 SE MDQ 30 SE GWO MLU.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 S GLH 30 S ELD 15 NNE DTN 30 S TXK TXK 25 NNE HOT 10 WSW BVX
BVX 15 WNW CGI 15 ENE LWV 20 ESE GEZ 25 WNW WMO WMO 10 SSE HAO
25 SSW CVG 20 W FFT 25 ESE FTK 20 NE GLW 40 SSE GLW 25 NE 1M4
25 S GLH.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WSW TUP 20 SSW LLQ 15 ENE ELD 10 NW ELD 30 NW ELD 20 S M89
10 S LIT M19 30 ESE POF 15 SW HSB 30 NE HNB 35 NNW LOU
25 NNE LOU SDF 15 NE BNA 45 NNW MDQ 35 WSW TUP.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MSL 40 SSE UTA 40 NNE GLH 30 N GLH
30 ESE PBF 15 SSE SGT 25 NE SGT 25 NW NQA 20 SE PAH 25 S EHR OWB
20 SE OWB 25 W BWG 20 NNW BNA 35 SW MQY 45 W MSL.

 
THE EXCESSIVE RNFL EVENT IS UNDERWAY ACRS PTNS OF THE OH..TN AND
MID MS VLYS..WITH SIGNIFICANT CNVCTN CONTG TO DVLP FM THE ARKLATEX
NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY.  THE VRY STG..DIGGING UPR JET IS  NOSING
INTO THE SRN PLNS AND WL PROVIDE INCREASING LRG SCALE LIFT OVRNGT
THRUOUT THE THREAT AREA..AS AN UPR JET COUPLET FORMS AND THE UPR
FLOW BCMS VRY DIFL.  THE AMS IN PLACE IS ALREADY VRY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE..AS PER 00Z RAOBS SHOWING PWS AS HI AS 1.70 INCHES
FEEDING INTO THE DVLPG CNVCTN AND OBSERVED K INDICES IN THE
MID/UPR 30S FM SHV TO LZK TO FWD.  COMBO OF THE ENHANCED LRG SCALE
LIFT AND VRY MOIST..UNSTABLE AMS WL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF
VRY HVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS VCNTY OF QSTNRY FNTL BNDRY TUE NGT AND
AHD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE CDFNT ON WED.  RNFL RATES SHLD BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE HI MSTR AVBLTY..WITH LCL 1-2 INCH HRLY
RATES..POTNL TRAINING SUPPORTING SOME ISOLD 3+ INCH AMTS IN SVRL
HRS..AND LCL TOTALS OVR 5 INCHES PSBL BY WED AFTN.

TERRY
$$