EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011
 
...VALID 06Z MON APR 25 2011 - 12Z TUE APR 26 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 W MQB 25 NNE PPQ 15 E BMI OEB 20 NNE CWAJ 30 WNW ROC
20 ESE BUF 15 SSE HZY 15 NNE MFD FFO 20 NNW FFT 30 WSW FTK
35 SW HOP 20 SSE OLV 15 SW GLH 25 WNW MLU 25 ESE BAD 30 SSE SHV
15 SE PSN 15 E CRS SLR 30 NNW PRX 10 ESE AQR 15 NE PVJ 10 N SNL
BVO 15 E CNU 25 S CDJ 20 WNW EOK FSW 10 W MQB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
10 SW HNB 15 ENE DYR 40 SW UTA 10 WNW LLQ 25 W ELD 25 NW DTN
40 ESE OSA 25 ESE DEQ 15 NW MWT FSM MKO 20 N MKO 25 ESE CFV
25 NNW JLN 30 SSW SZL 30 NNW COU 20 ENE JEF 10 WSW TAZ 20 N GUS
20 ESE FWA 30 WSW AOH 15 WSW BAK 10 SW HNB.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSW SUS 20 NW 1H2 HUF 10 ESE HUF LWV 10 ESE HSB 35 SSW CIR
25 W M97 PBF 30 SSW M89 35 SW M89 10 W RUE 40 ESE FYV 10 SE SLG
25 N ROG 25 WSW AIZ 15 E VIH 25 SSW SUS.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CGI 30 S POF 10 S JBR SRC
20 NNW LRF 25 NW BVX 35 NE UNO FAM 15 SE SAR 15 NNE CGI.

 
MODEL QPF GUIDANCE AGAIN ADVERTISING A MAJOR EXCESSIVE RNFL
EVENT..WITH THE STG DYNAMICS ASOCTD WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE
CNTRL U.S. AIDING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.  THE CAVEAT HOWEVER IS
THAT THE 00Z MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOING POORLY HANDLING THE
ONGOING ACTVTY..LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION OF SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE FORCING.  THAT BEING SAID..EXPECT CONTG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE E/W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE SFC LO AIDED
FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS..WITH A CONTG STG NWD MSTR
FLUX INTO THE FEATURE AVBL TO SUPPORT HVY CNVCTV RAINS.  A 2ND
LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE FROM A COMBO OF THE STG HGT FALLS AND
ITS ASOCTD CYCLOGENESIS AS WELL AS THE EWD PUSH OF THE ASOCTD
CDFNT. BELIEVE THE BEST COMBO OF ALL THE ABOVE MECHANISMS WOULD
ARGUE FOR  THE MID MS VLY AREA BEING THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST
ACTVTY.  IN ANY CASE..WIDESPREAD 2.00 TO 3.00 INCH RAINS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD AGAIN NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AMTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE INCHES THRU THE PD OVR LOCALIZED AREAS OF
THE MID MS VLY.

KORTY
$$