EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
155 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2011
 
...VALID 06Z SAT APR 23 2011 - 12Z SUN APR 24 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E BWG 15 ENE DYR 20 S M19 25 SSE RUE 35 NNE PRX 10 WSW FWS
15 S SEP 30 NNW 7F9 10 NW PVJ 15 WNW OKM 25 SSW SGF 20 SW SUS
10 ENE HUF 10 WNW SGH 15 WSW PHD 15 S FIG 20 E SEG CXY
25 SSW CBE 25 ESE HTS 35 NW SME 10 E BWG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 NNE UNO 25 SW SAR AJG 20 NW CVG 10 N UNI 45 NW HTS 25 SE LOU
25 S OWB 40 NNW HOP 20 NNW BYH 30 W RUE 10 NNE RKR 15 NNE JSV
15 WNW HRO 25 NNE UNO.

 
FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL CNVGNC ZONE/OUTFLOW BNDRYS WILL CONCENTRATE MSTR
CNVGNC ALONG THE RATHER LARGE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.  PROBLEM IS IT
THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT EXCESSIVE RAINS ANYWHERE WITHIN
THIS RATHER LARGE AREA AS THE INTERACTION OF SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE FORCING OCCURS. IN ADDITION..GAUGING THE EFFECT OF WEAK
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS AN ISSUE. MSTR AVBLTY
PER PWS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT INTENSE RNFL RATES AND A
BROAD AREA OF DIV FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO AID CNVCTV
DVLPMNT.  IT WOULD SEEM THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIEST ACTVTY IS
ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS WHERE THE BEST MSTR FLUX INTO THE
FRONTAL BAND WILL BE CONCENTRATED..AS WELL AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
MULTIPLE CNVCTV AREAS REPEATING OVR THE REGION. WIDESPREAD 1.00 TO
2.00 INCH RAINS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE OUTLLOK AREA WITH ISOLD AMTS
IN EXCESS OF 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES PSBL..PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MID
MS/LWR OH VLY REGION.

KORTY
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