EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
913 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011
 
...VALID 03Z SAT APR 23 2011 - 00Z SUN APR 24 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E MFD 15 NW BVI 20 S FIG 30 SE UNV 30 WSW CXY 10 SSE MRB
30 N LYH 15 S LWB 10 W I16 30 NW SME 15 W HOP 15 SE JBR 20 W LZK
25 W DEQ 10 SW DUA 20 E DUC 15 N ROG 30 SSW TBN 25 S SUS
25 ESE TAZ 25 NNW EYE 10 ESE AOH 10 E MFD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
MGY 20 SSW TZR 25 NNE UNI 20 WSW PKB 15 NNE 3I2 25 W 3I2
40 WNW HTS 15 SSW FFT 10 ENE OWB 25 SSE HSB 15 ENE CGI
25 SSE FAM 10 ESE FAM SAR FOA 15 ENE RSV 20 W BAK WMO MGY.

 
MID MS VALLEY THRU THE OH VALLEY...

ONCE AGAIN...ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
 

LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT WITH A WIDESPREAD
HVY TO EXCESSIVE PCPN EVENT THIS PERIOD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY..NEWD THRU THE OH VALLEY.  LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVG PW VALUES...1-2+ STD ABOVE THE MEAN...ALONG THE
MEAN FRONTAL BNDRY PSN BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACRS THESE AREAS.  THE
INITIAL BATCH OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVG EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE BEST MOISTURE. 
AS OF 23/01Z...SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE 23/06Z TO 23/12Z TIME FRAME AS THEY
MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT COLD FRONT FROM FAR SE MO INTO ERN OK. THIS BATCH OF STORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARDS IN AND THE SRN OH VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP IN THE MID MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY.  

THE QPF AXES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR ACRS THE
OUTLOOK REGION.  FOR QPF DETAILS THE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER HI RES
ARW/NMM AMTS WERE FOLLOWED...WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3"+ TOTALS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD FROM NRN AR/SRN MO...ENEWD THRU THE OH VALLEY....WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

BANN
$$