EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1026 AM EDT THU APR 21 2011
 
...VALID 15Z THU APR 21 2011 - 12Z FRI APR 22 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MLU 35 E BAD 10 ENE BAD 10 NW DTN 30 NW DTN 30 SW TXK
25 WSW TXK TXK 25 E TXK 20 WNW ELD 35 NNE BQP 30 SSE GLH
35 S GWO 35 NNE JAN 30 ENE JAN 25 E JAN 15 SE JAN 15 SSW JAN
20 SW HKS 15 SE TVR MLU.

 
UPDATE...

CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE STNRY FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION.  CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN LATEST OPERATIONAL...SREF AND HI RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. 
THIS IS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS.  WHILE THE
LATEST HI RES ARW AND NMM ARE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH WITH THEIR
CURRENT QPF AXIS...THEY BOTH DO SHOW CONVECTION PERSISTING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF AND NORTH OF THIS BNDRY...WHILE MUCH OF THE
OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE SHOW IT REFORMING TO THE NORTH AND
NW.  ATTM...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD CONVECTION PERSISTING JUST NORTH
OF THIS BNDRY...AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON... AS MOIST SLY
INFLOW CONTS INTO THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT CONVECTION. 
EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION SHOULD REFORM FARTHER NORTH AS THE MAIN
WARM FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHES NORTH IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROF
MOVG INTO THE PLAINS EARLY FRI.  HOWEVER...IN THE SHORTER
TERM...THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION WL PLACE AREAS OF NRN LA...FAR
SRN AR AND WCNTRL MS IN A THREAT OF TRAINING CONVECTION IN A NW TO
SELY DIRECTION.  THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT CONVECTION COULD SLIP IN
FARTHER SEWD AS OUTFLOW PUSHES AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.  WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ACRS THESE AREAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
OF CELLS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF
1-2"+....WHICH MAY RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES  

ORAVEC

$$