EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 AM EDT THU APR 21 2011
 
...VALID 06Z THU APR 21 2011 - 12Z FRI APR 22 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

 
...INVOF THE LWR/MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

WHILE LCLY HVY RAINS ARE PSBL TODAY ACROSS THIS RATHER LARGE
AREA..PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN CELLS COULD REPEAT OVR
LOCALIZED AREAS IS A MORE DIFFICULT TASK.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE
BEST SHWR WILL LIFT NWD WITH TIME AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AHEAD OF
THE APCHG WRN U.S. UPPER TROF THUS SHIFTING THE AXIS OF BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT NWD.  HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT
MESOSCALE FORCING ASOCTD WITH CNVCTN TRIGGERED INITIALLY INVOF THE
SFC BNDRY COULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE BEST AREA OF CNVCTN A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  THAT BEING
SAID..AND THE FACT MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IS CURRENTLY
MAKING FOR A LO CONFIDENCE FCST IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF A
SPECIFIC AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.  FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL
SEE AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES THRU THE FCST PD BUT WILL WAIT
FOR LATER GUIDANCE BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AREA FOR
THE OUTLOOK.

KORTY
$$