EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011
 
...VALID 18Z TUE APR 19 2011 - 00Z THU APR 21 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SW PRG 10 W OKK 20 NW FWA 20 SW JYM 15 WNW ADG ARB 10 S PTK
VLL MTC 10 ENE DET 10 NNW CXHA 15 ESE TTF 20 ENE TDZ 30 E TDZ
20 NW CLE 15 NNW CGF 25 NE CGF 10 NW HZY 10 NNE HZY 10 SSW ERI
15 SSE ERI 20 ENE GKJ 10 NE FKL 10 SSE FKL 15 SSW FKL 20 SE YNG
20 NW BVI 25 WNW BVI 20 NE PHD 15 ESE PHD 30 WSW HLG 15 NNE PKB
10 SW PKB 20 E UNI UNI 20 WNW UNI 30 SSW LCK ILN 15 E LUK
10 W FFT 25 SE LOU 20 SSW FTK 25 SSW EHR 20 SE HSB 15 SW MVN
20 SW ENL 20 W ENL 15 NW SLO 20 WSW 1H2 15 S MTO 20 SW PRG.

 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK.  STRONG  DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE MID TO UPR LEVEL
TROF MOVG INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WL SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTION ALONG THE CDFNT PUSHING EWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THESE STRONG
DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH ABOVE AVG PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...1-2+ STD ABOVE MEAN...WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION  STRETCHING FROM
THE ERN LAKES SWWD THRU PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST..MID TO LOWER MS
VALLEY AND OH VALLEY AT CONVECTIVE MAX TIME BETWEEN 0000-1200 UTC.
ISOLATED SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY...SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY.  
PRIOR TO THIS...THERE WL CONT TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEWD MOVG WARM FRONT ACRS
CNTRL TO NRN IN INTO MOST OF OH.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING...SHRT TERM
PCPN AMTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.  THIS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SHRT
TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1"+ FROM THE EXPECTED UPSTREAM COLD FRONTAL
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATE RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC
a$$