EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011
 
...VALID 06Z MON APR 18 2011 - 12Z TUE APR 19 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

 
...LWR/MID OH VLY...
 
THE H5 S/WV DIGGING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES LTR MON NGT WL BEGIN TO
BACK THE MID/UPR LVL FLO DOWNSTREAM OVR THE OH VLY.  FOR THE MOST
PART..THE MDL SOLNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  AT
THE SAME TIME..THE SLY/SSWLY LLJ WL ALSO STRENGHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
UP THRU THE SAME REGION MON NGT..WITH GTR THAN 50KTS OF INFLO
INCREASING PWS IN THE INFLO REGIME AND VCNTY OF THE SFC FNT TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES.  RESULT SHLD BE AN EXPANSION OF OVRRNG
RAINS/CNVCTN MAINLY THRU THE LWR/MID OH VLY ON THE NOSE OF THE
STGR INFLO/HIER AXIS OF PWS.  AS MENTIONED IN THE QPFPFD..THE GFS
HVIER QPF AXIS LOOKS TOO FAR N IN THE OH VLY..AND MANUAL QPF
PREFERRED AN AXIS FARTHER S AS PER MUCH OF THE RMNDR OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE.  A BAND OF 1-2 INCH RNFL AMTS NOT TOO FAR N OF THE OH
RVR OVR SRN PTNS OF IL INTO SRN IN AND SWRN OH SEEMS MOST LIKELY. 
SOME LWR FF GUIDANCE VALUES PTNS OF CNTRL/SRN IL ARE A WORRY..WITH
ANY POTNL RUNOFF PROBS LIKELY HERE..BUT IN GENL FF GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE HI ENUF SUCH THAT I DID'T OUTLOOK A THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME.

TERRY
$$