EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
207 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011
 
...VALID 18Z SAT APR 16 2011 - 00Z MON APR 18 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE OMH 10 WNW LKU 25 NW FVX 15 N LYH 25 WSW SHD W99
20 NNW CBE JST 10 ENE DUJ 15 WSW ELZ 15 NW ELM 10 NE ITH
25 SSE SYR 30 S UCA 10 NW SCH 15 NNW DDH RUT 20 NW LEB 20 SW HIE
30 NNE IZG 20 NW AUG WVL 15 ESE WVL 15 NE IWI NHZ PWM 10 NW DAW
10 WSW CON 15 ENE EEN 20 WSW EEN PSF 15 N DXR 10 SW HPN EWR
15 SSW EWR 10 SSE TTN 15 WNW PHL 20 NNE APG 15 N MTN 10 W BWI
DCA HEF 10 ENE OMH.

 
INCREASINGLY NEG TILTED UPR TROF EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GT LAKES
INTO THE TN VALLEY AT 18Z WILL HAVE TROF AXIS SWEEP RAPIDLY NEWD
TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AS UPSTREAM S/WV DIGS SEWD ACRS
THE WRN GT LAKES AND PHASES WITH SYSTEM TOWARD THE ERN GT LAKES
SWRN QUEBEC PROV LATE TONIGHT AND SUN.  STG INFLO OF GULF AND ATLC
MSTR WL CONT AHD OF THIS H5 TROF..ON A SLY LLJ EXCEEDING
60KTS..WHICH WL BRING PWS BWTN 1.00-1.25 INCHES AS FAR N AND E AS
SRN NEW ENG REGION.  EXPECT CURRENT N/S SQLN OVER PA INTO CNTL NC
TO CONTINUE INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPR
DIVERGENCE/HEIGHT FALLS WITH LINE FEEDING ON STG LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MSTR..SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAINS TONIGHT FM NJ
NEWD INTO SRN MAINE.  SOME HI RES GUID SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.   THESE AMOUNTS WILL APCH OR EXCEED SOME OF
THE RATHER LOW FF GUIDANCE VALUES WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA
RESULTING IN SOME RUNOFF/FLOODING ISSUES.

SULLIVAN
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