EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
247 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011
 
...VALID 06Z SAT APR 16 2011 - 12Z SUN APR 17 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNE ELZ 15 NNW ELM 10 NE ITH 30 SSW UCA 40 WSW SCH 25 SW ALB
30 WSW PSF 30 SW PSF 20 NE POU 10 NW HPN NYC 15 SSW EWR TTN PNE
10 WSW LOM 15 ESE LNS 10 ENE THV 15 WSW THV 20 E HGR 15 WNW FDK
10 E OKV 25 NW CJR 20 NW OMH CHO 20 SW CHO 30 S SHD 20 N LYH
20 E ROA 15 S ROA 20 SSE BCB 20 ENE HLX HLX 10 E MKJ 10 SSW BLF
10 N BLF 15 NE BKW 25 S 48I 10 NW 48I 25 WNW W22 25 WNW CKB
25 SSW AFJ AFJ 15 NNE AGC 20 ENE BTP 20 NW DUJ BFD 15 W ELZ
10 NNE ELZ.

 
THE MID/UPR LOW OVR THE CNTRL U.S. WL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FILL AND
TAKE ON A MORE NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN MID ATLC/SRN
NEW ENG REGION BY SUN MRNG.   STG INFLO OF GULF AND EVENTUALLY
ATLC MSTR WL CONT AHD OF THIS H5 TROF..ON A SLY LLJ EXCEEDING
60KTS..WHICH WL BRING PWS BTWN 1.00-1.25 INCHES AS FAR N AND E AS
THE NRN MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENG REGION.  COMBO OF THIS INCREASE IN
MSTR AND STG ORGANIZED LRG SCALE LIFT FM SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS/MID
LVL DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS..WL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MDT TO HVY RAINS FM THE SERN STATES NWD INTO NEW ENG.  RATHER LOW
FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A PRIMARY CONCERN WITHIN THE THREAT
AREA..WITH XPCD
RNFL AMTS OF 1-2+ INCHES DURG THIS PD POTNLY RESULTING IN SOME
RUNOFF/FLOODING ISSUES.

TERRY
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