EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
914 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011
 
...VALID 03Z SAT APR 16 2011 - 00Z SUN APR 17 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WNW 48I 30 S HLG BVI FKL 15 NW DUJ 10 SE FIG 30 SE UNV
10 WSW CXY 20 S THV 10 SE IAD KW66 25 NE LYH 20 NE MWK 15 W MWK
10 SSW GEV 15 S VJI 10 S 6V3 15 N BLF 30 WNW 48I.

 
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.  

THE MID/UPR LOW OVR THE CNTRL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FILL
AND TAKE ON A MORE NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACRS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID ATLC REGION BY LATE SAT.  ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARD THE GT LAKES REGION WHILE MODELS
GENLY AGREE ON A SECONDARY LOW DVLPMENT NEAR THE CNTL APLCNS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO STG JET STREAK AND INCREASING UPR LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DVLP OVER THE REGION.  AS A RESULT..EXPECT CONVECTIVE
RAINS TO INCREASE ACRS THE CNTL APLCNS REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SAT.  WITH 85H LOW LEVEL SLY JET INCREASING TO NEAR
60 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT..PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.25
INCHES..INCREASING UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF NEG TILT
TROF..AND WEAK INSTABILITY DVLPG NEAR AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE REGION..POTNL WILL EXIST FOR SOME 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINS. RATHER LOW FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE PRIMARY CONCERN..WITH
ANTICIPATED TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACRS THE OUTLOOK AREA
RESULTING IN SOME RUNOFF ISSUES.

KORTY
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