QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 09/0000 UTC THRU JUN 10/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST EWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRT LAKES/MID-ATL... NOT AT ALL AN EASY FCST FOR THIS PD...AS THERE ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT QPF DIFFS IN THE 12Z MDL SUITE. ON THE LARGE SCALE THE MDLS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A H5 TROF AXIS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHRTWV DYNAMICS MOVG ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE GRT LAKES/OH VLY ON WED. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS OVERALL LARGE MASS FIELD AGREEMENT...THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS ONCE AGAIN ARE VERY TROUBLESOME. VIRTUALLY NO MDL AT ALL HAS HANDLED THE MORNING MCS WELL THAT WAS MOVING ACRS THE MIDWEST AND IS NOW DECAYING AS IT MOVES TWD THE LWR OH VLY. THE COMPLEX THOUGH HAS LAID DOWN A FORMIDABLE OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO AND STRETCHING EWD INTO IL. THE COLD POOL ASSOC WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THIS BNDRY IN THE SHORT TERM AND CERTAINLY TO THE EXTENT THAT ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES. ONLY THE HI-RES 12Z ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS BNDRY AND THE CURRENT DEGREE OF CONVECTION AND HENCE A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST IS SUGGESTED. THE THINKING HERE IS THAT THIS BNDRY WILL ACT AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND INTERSECTING WHAT SHOULD BE A STRENGTHENING WAA/MSTR TRANSPORT PATTERN AS THE MID LVL TROF ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRM THE WEST. COMBINATION OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASINGLY DIFFUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A PWAT CORE RISING TO OVER 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STG CONVECTION WITH VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL MDL SUITE IS TOO FAR NORTH TONIGHT WITH THEIR CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS...AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT FEEDBACK ON THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN THE NEW 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/SRN MO AND IL...WOULD LIKE TO PLAY UP A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESP INVOF THE MS RIVER AFTER 06Z WHERE STRONGER FORCING AND A RISK OF TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION MAY EXIST. FARTHER NORTH...RELATIVELY WEAKER WAA...BUT STILL RATHER ROBUST UPR LVL DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD AT ALLOW AT LEAST A BKN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION RAINS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION FROM THE UPR MIDWEST EWD ACRS THE GRT LAKES...WITH THIS ENERGY STREAKING INTO THE UPR OH VLY AND MID-ATL REGION ON WED. HPC QPF DID NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR ONE GLOBAL MDL OVER THE OTHER GIVEN SUCH QPF DISAGREEMENT...BUT THE HI-RES 12Z ARW DOES MORE CLOSELY REPRESENT MANUAL PROGS. ...SRN FL... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. FAVORED THE RELATIVELY WETTER GFS HERE WITH THIS. ...SRN TX... THE MDLS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THE IDEA OF TAKING A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH TX AND LIFTING THIS FEATURE NEWD INTO NORTHEAST TX BY WED EVE. THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AND BROAD UPPER LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A VRY MOIST AMS...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BKN AXIS OF CONVECTION INVOLVING MUCH OF SRN AND ERN TX. LEANED TWD THE WETTER MDL CAMP OVERALL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE MID LVL LOW CENTER...BUT NOT AS WET AS THE GFS WHICH STILL HAS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBS. HPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF. ...PAC NW... A SOLID PAC SHRTWV/CLSD LOW FEATURE TRACKING WEST TO EAST WILL ARRIVE INTO THE PAC NW COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE...DRIVING A ROBUST TRANSPORT OF PAC MSTR. THE 12Z MDL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...REACHING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ASSOC COLD FRONT. DEEP LYR ONSHORE FLOW AND FORCING FROM OROGRAPHICS AND H25 LFQ JET DYNAMICS SHOULD DRIVE AT LEAST SOME MODERATELY HVY RAIN FOR THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR AND INTO THE CASCADES. THIS ENERGY AND MSTR TRANSPORT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE WED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SHWRS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTING THE BLUE MTN AND BITTERROOT RANGES. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM FOR QPF...EXCEPT WITH SOME LOCALLY WETTER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR OROGRAPHICS AND THE HIGHER PWATS ASSOC WITH THE SYS. ORRISON GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 10/00Z 0.01 551960 551954 550948 548943 545930 543924 540913 537905 532897 528892 520881 516875 513865 508846 505839 502831 497824 494821 490814 486802 481786 474775 464766 455760 446752 444747 441737 432731 428728 423723 418718 412715 407713 401714 394717 388722 383728 380734 377739 375746 375756 374762 372768 369780 371788 370795 366804 348820 345825 343833 342838 342847 341858 339869 333882 331887 330896 330907 331914 326916 320916 316917 312919 311922 308927 274951 267958 260966 258970 256976 253988 255995 257998 263999 270997 274997 276998 282002 286005 294004 315996 319990 323986 330981 342979 346982 346988 342000 342008 344014 346019 346028 347036 345040 343042 342047 344052 352053 358057 365057 369058 375059 380064 384068 387075 392080 395083 398079 402078 406077 408080 407090 404105 402110 406113 411122 414130 415138 416142 414149 415156 418158 421154 422143 426138 428138 431139 432158 432165 433174 433182 432190 434197 436201 436203 436209 434211 429215 424218 419223 412226 408226 403228 398232 395237 394244 394250 395256 399261 401263 409265 414264 423261 431260 439260 444258 454253 461255 466257 473262 480266 484268 488274 491280 496284 500285 502284 505281 508277 511270 514262 519217 523214 528212 532208 534203 536191 535182 534177 535171 536156 537143 535136 531121 528103 526094 524088 522081 520068 518063 512058 508057 506064 503072 502080 500092 499097 497102 494108 490108 487106 484104 482098 479091 474086 470085 467086 462091 458093 454092 447092 442086 438088 435089 432088 429085 428082 429078 430075 433068 433060 432053 434045 432035 429028 427020 425012 394024 387022 380021 378017 378009 382999 385992 385982 384974 385969 388962 391957 394952 396945 397939 397933 399928 399924 398921 400919 404913 406911 408920 409923 413925 416919 418912 421906 423903 427904 431908 434914 434924 437929 439930 443929 449928 458927 462931 466935 470942 476953 478961 480968 484972 490974 493978 497985 503994 505012 507017 509018 515022 518024 521023 527019 533015 538010 545997 547992 547987 549977 550964 551960 0.01 291808 288803 283802 275799 274794 272790 266789 261790 255794 251797 246806 244811 244818 245821 248823 255822 260824 263826 269826 272824 273822 275817 278813 283812 289811 291808 0.25 524928 516904 512894 509878 506866 500856 494846 488839 483833 477822 472814 466808 459801 456799 451799 447797 445793 444784 434761 431753 424744 419739 413730 409727 405726 397729 392732 389736 385745 384754 385765 384768 381773 379778 379784 379792 377799 372808 368816 357830 354835 351840 350845 351865 348873 344881 341890 339898 339909 341914 345914 348913 351915 353918 358924 362928 366941 371947 373952 373959 375964 376963 380959 382955 386949 389939 391917 396900 397878 399868 401865 405861 410861 414863 419874 423873 427869 432869 436870 443878 449885 453891 459896 467900 474906 479915 485921 499931 505938 510947 513949 517950 521945 524934 524928 0.25 522177 523172 524166 526153 525142 523134 519115 517110 514112 510131 506137 501141 496143 492141 489139 488139 485142 485147 483151 481152 477153 473152 468148 463144 461144 455147 443149 442154 443158 446164 448172 448179 446185 447194 449196 453193 454188 456187 462184 466180 469174 475176 480180 484195 485202 483205 479205 475207 468208 463211 457213 446213 441215 436219 432224 432231 414239 416245 420250 427252 432251 453247 466244 470244 477247 485255 488258 492259 496257 500252 504242 504231 503224 503215 500208 501202 505197 517188 522177 0.25 373982 373978 372975 371971 370971 369972 367972 365975 362976 359980 358984 359988 360988 363988 366988 369987 370986 371985 373982 0.25 370025 371022 370018 370015 369011 367009 365011 364012 362013 359015 359016 357019 356019 357023 360026 363026 366025 366026 368027 370025 0.25 336960 335954 332952 325948 310947 300947 291949 278957 267968 262973 261981 266986 273988 277988 280990 285994 292996 294996 298992 302988 309983 319972 326968 332964 336960 0.25 267802 264801 261801 259802 258802 256804 255807 254807 255810 256813 257813 259815 260815 263814 263813 263810 263808 264806 265804 267802 0.50 506901 502870 498861 493854 482841 475835 471832 464830 456828 451825 445818 438816 431813 426808 425801 426798 430791 432786 432779 429768 427762 424757 420749 415741 409736 406734 402733 396736 394738 392743 392760 391770 391775 390780 384793 380801 378809 377818 374824 373828 371833 367840 364847 365856 363863 359870 355875 351877 347881 345886 342897 341899 343904 345905 349904 353908 356911 360913 365930 368936 370938 375942 378947 379949 384946 386938 388927 389916 390908 391904 391898 390889 391879 391870 391862 392857 394852 397849 401848 405846 407843 433854 437858 443866 447873 453880 459885 465888 471892 476898 484906 491911 497912 500912 503910 506901 0.50 499237 498226 496216 494212 492212 487213 482211 477210 473210 465213 459216 454216 449217 443220 441223 444228 447229 447234 441239 442242 444243 449244 457242 460240 462239 462236 460233 457233 452232 448229 451229 459228 464228 468226 472224 475226 476229 480227 484223 487222 499237 499237 0.50 504173 504168 502163 496161 490160 479158 473158 467155 461156 458158 456155 455157 458161 462161 464158 467161 470163 473161 475160 478163 484170 485178 488183 491185 494184 498180 501177 504173 0.50 463178 463175 460174 457176 456176 456181 459182 459181 462179 463178 0.50 389832 386832 383832 382835 382839 385839 387838 389836 389832 389832 0.50 329958 328956 325953 319953 303953 297952 289955 279962 269970 265975 265979 267982 279985 284989 290992 296989 301984 306980 311975 313970 318965 329958 1.00 490879 489872 488868 484863 480863 479868 472865 466864 459862 458864 459867 461869 467874 471878 478884 482886 486887 489884 490879 1.00 422771 421765 419760 414755 411752 408750 402753 400758 399763 399767 402772 403778 403786 403792 406796 408799 412793 416786 420778 422771 1.00 386883 386877 384872 379867 376868 369873 362885 358892 359895 363902 366911 369918 368925 371928 373924 374929 376934 380938 384940 385931 386920 387913 388905 386894 386883 1.00 353890 351887 351886 351887 351890 352892 353890 1.00 312961 311957 306957 295958 286962 278966 272973 270977 275979 282981 290985 292985 295983 297981 304975 307971 308968 312961 1.50 383884 381876 377875 373878 368884 366889 365898 366904 370912 374920 376927 381923 384922 385917 385909 385904 385898 383888 383884 1.50 303969 303966 301963 300963 298963 295964 290967 285967 279969 277973 280976 286977 289978 294978 297976 300972 303969 2.00 382892 381885 379881 376880 373881 371885 369890 368896 370903 372906 373909 374913 377915 379911 381914 383918 383917 383910 383903 382895 382892 3.00 379893 378891 376893 376894 376897 377901 378897 379895 379893 $$