QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 235 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 08/1200 UTC THRU JUN 09/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST EWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRT LAKES... THE LATEST MDL SOLNS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF H5 SHRTWV DYNAMICS MOVG THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PD...WITH ALL OF THEM ALLOWING VORT ENERGY TO EMERGE INTO THE NORTH CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING AND PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GRT LAKES/OH VLY. HOWEVER... DESPITE THIS OVERALL LARGE MASS FIELD AGREEMENT... THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS ONCE AGAIN ARE VERY TROUBLESOME. HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IS ALREADY TRIGGERING A WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NE AND THIS IS IN GENERAL VICINITY OF A SFC LOW AND WELL-DEFINED THERMAL BOUNDARY. JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LLJ...REACHING 40 TO 50 KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS DRIVING A POOL OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY BECOMING A WARM FRONT...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING/POOLING TO OVER 2 INCHES THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THIS COMPLEX AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PROCEED DOWNSTREAM. THE LATEST THINKING AND MODEL CHOICE FROM HPC ON QPF AMOUNTS AND AXIS IS A COMBO OF THE NAM/ECMWF ON MASS FIELDS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THESE TWO WITH THE SREF MEAN/ENSBC QPF FOR AXIS/ALIGNMENT. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY/MSTR TRANSPORT WILL SET UP FROM ERN NE/KS ENEWRD THROUGH IA/NRN MO INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LAKES REGION BUT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE UPSTREAM ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM KS BACK INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SERN CO. ALL OF THIS SOUNDS GREAT AND RATHER CERTAIN BUT ALREADY... THE ACTIVE CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN IS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA. THUS THIS QPF FCST REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE AND THE ENTIRE AXIS OF ANTICIPATED HEAVY QPF PERHAPS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GUIDANCE. HPC WENT WITH AN AXIS FROM SRN IA/NRN MO INTO NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IN WITH AMOUNTS 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ...SRN TX... THE MDLS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THE IDEA OF TAKING A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH TX AND LIFTING THIS FEATURE NEWRD INTO SOUTHEAST TX BY WED MORNING. THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AND BROAD UPPER LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A VRY MOIST AMS...PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES... AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BKN AXIS OF CNVCTN FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TX. ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING A SOLID CLUSTER OF CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN IS SLIDING NORTH ACROSS EXTREME SRN TX AND THE ECMWF/GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLING OF THIS ACTIVITY... WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY DEPICTING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK QPF AMOUNTS. HPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ECMWF/SREF MEAN/ENSBC QPF SOLNS HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CNVCTN AND HI MSTR IN PLACE. ...PAC NW... A SOLID PAC SHORT WAVE/CLOSED LOW FEATURE TRACKING WEST TO EAST WILL ARRIVE INTO THE PAC NW COASTLINE LATE TUES/EARLY WED AND KICK-START A DECENT TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO WA/OR. IN FACT... OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HEALTHY MOISTURE CONTENT OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH PWS COMBINING WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A DYNAMIC JET STREAK FOR SOLID QPF AMOUNTS COASTAL OR/WA INTO THE CASCADES. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM ON MASS FIELD DETAILS AND QPF AMOUNTS. MUSHER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 09/12Z 0.01 476693 472686 468686 465684 460682 456680 454677 451674 448675 443681 439689 434698 429702 426704 423703 416702 413706 414712 417716 419717 423718 427716 433712 439712 440716 440720 442725 445730 450735 452735 455733 456724 458717 461710 464706 468702 474696 476693 0.01 534126 532113 529101 529096 527089 527073 527039 528027 528016 523989 521982 520975 519958 519940 518935 517929 514922 507891 502881 498874 487858 476844 466834 458826 453819 444806 432790 418772 415767 411766 407767 403766 399768 395771 390780 386786 384794 380810 380832 370849 368853 369860 372874 373882 372891 368911 366929 363945 357959 355964 356969 357982 358987 358994 356002 351010 342017 326025 323032 322036 318037 311036 306030 301021 301011 300007 301002 304996 310981 314972 319963 323958 329954 333950 335946 336943 335936 331928 326921 316912 312913 309915 308919 305920 300916 296916 294918 295930 292938 288946 283954 281957 277959 270962 255970 245978 239982 239988 241991 244997 246004 249005 253006 261005 269008 275013 283016 290020 290037 290041 294043 302048 310049 314052 319052 324055 327057 332058 337053 338051 343049 352051 358055 362057 369057 374057 377059 386063 388066 390071 392076 394079 400079 405077 410078 415079 420076 426069 433065 435060 435054 435048 438046 442041 444032 442021 444012 446007 450003 457999 463997 466999 467003 467011 468020 471030 473045 474049 478052 486055 486063 488070 490081 494103 495116 495128 497140 502147 505151 508157 511169 512180 513186 515190 519196 521196 523192 523187 527174 528169 529160 529151 530145 534126 0.01 507283 509274 510265 510253 510236 509221 507207 503199 498188 492175 488166 482160 477156 471154 467153 462149 459147 456147 451149 446148 442150 440154 445166 442174 441177 439184 438191 438199 435203 432202 430200 428197 425195 417200 411205 407207 401206 396205 394206 393210 398219 398222 396224 392225 388227 383230 381233 381237 382242 385246 389247 399250 403251 407253 412256 418258 426257 443252 460249 473251 482258 486264 488268 493276 498283 500285 503289 505287 507283 0.01 405004 405000 404996 402993 401991 399989 398988 395988 393990 393994 395997 395998 397001 399002 401004 402005 404004 405004 0.01 279823 277818 276811 271800 269796 265794 257793 253794 248797 244802 243812 243821 246823 251824 253827 258828 265829 274831 278827 279823 0.01 294084 296081 296078 295072 289065 283062 272061 264056 261055 255054 253057 252063 255072 256074 261077 267081 274086 283090 288090 291087 294084 0.25 506952 506940 505929 503919 500913 493897 491889 486880 479865 472855 467850 462846 458842 451839 446837 441834 438829 435823 433815 429806 425798 421793 416787 412784 407784 401786 398790 397797 396813 394827 391840 385868 384898 381913 377927 373939 372945 371953 368967 367972 367983 369990 371991 375990 382984 391976 396971 404968 409970 414975 420978 423977 426973 430967 435961 438958 446954 453953 459954 464956 473964 478968 482970 487970 490971 496967 503958 506952 0.25 490252 491248 490244 489241 486238 484237 481235 481228 484225 488224 492221 490216 487211 480208 473207 467207 465209 461212 457213 449213 442218 436224 430229 428232 425238 423241 423246 426247 429246 437246 445245 452242 460241 469240 475243 490252 0.25 390042 389040 388039 386037 384035 383035 380035 377035 376036 377039 378039 380042 382043 383043 386045 389045 390042 0.25 305972 305963 304957 302953 297950 294952 289955 284960 279964 274967 266969 261972 256978 254984 254988 256992 259993 264996 269000 274004 280005 284005 287003 291999 298988 301982 304975 305972 0.25 265812 265809 264806 263804 262803 260802 259801 256802 253803 251805 250809 250811 250812 250815 252816 254817 255817 258818 261819 264818 266815 266814 265812 0.50 499945 499939 499934 497923 495917 492909 489902 486896 476884 462866 457860 453856 448852 444847 417795 413792 409791 406794 405806 401819 397832 392857 389871 390889 389901 386914 383927 378941 376952 372965 371971 372976 373979 376980 379979 385974 392966 399964 405963 411966 416971 420972 423966 426952 428946 431941 435935 441932 444928 451923 456921 457921 459924 465937 472947 476953 478956 482957 492951 499945 0.50 483218 483214 482212 479210 476211 473212 470214 467217 464216 461217 456219 455222 457225 462228 465230 467226 469220 472218 478219 483218 0.50 300973 300966 298961 295960 289960 282966 275970 266972 263975 260978 260984 262989 269992 274998 279999 282996 287990 293983 298976 300973 0.50 260811 260808 259805 257805 254806 254807 254811 256813 257813 260813 260811 1.00 488939 487934 486933 484935 483936 483940 484941 486940 488939 1.00 434910 437898 441888 439871 436858 435851 432846 425831 415817 412818 408824 404841 400855 398863 396872 397882 397889 394907 393915 392922 387939 382952 379959 379964 381966 390958 397955 403956 417959 421955 422951 424942 434910 1.00 293970 290967 285968 282970 280973 275976 269976 267977 267981 273982 277982 280982 283979 286977 290974 293970 1.50 433891 433883 431876 428860 422851 419843 418839 413841 411845 409851 403869 404877 404883 402893 397916 395925 395933 398936 400943 402948 405950 411952 416951 419947 422941 427918 429909 432895 433891 2.00 427897 427887 426877 424868 420863 417863 414864 411871 409883 406897 402910 400916 399925 402933 404943 407946 410947 414947 418943 421936 422929 423922 421916 423910 427898 427897 3.00 419931 419927 417924 416922 415920 412918 412917 409916 406916 404919 404920 404924 404927 406931 407934 409938 410939 412939 415937 417936 418935 419931 4.00 418932 417931 416928 414925 413925 410922 407923 407926 408928 409930 412932 414933 415933 417932 418932 $$