EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010
 
...VALID 18Z TUE JUN 08 2010 - 00Z THU JUN 10 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSW EHR 25 S PAH 40 ESE POF 15 SW POF 30 ENE UNO 35 NNW UNO
35 NNE SGF 40 SSE SZL 25 SE DMO 30 E JEF STL ENL 10 E AJG
15 SSW HNB 40 SSW EHR.


...MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MIDWEST HAS LAID DOWN A
FORMIDABLE OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO AND
STRETCHING EWD INTO IL. THE COLD POOL ASSOC WITH THE COMPLEX WILL
BE SUSTAINED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HRS AS ACTIVE CONVECTION
CONTINUES. THIS WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE COLD POOL TO THE NORTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE...LED BY THE 12Z ARW AND
12Z GEM REGIONAL SOLNS SUGGEST THAT THIS BNDRY WILL ACT AS A WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND INTERSECTING WHAT SHOULD BE A STRENGTHENING
WAA/MSTR TRANSPORT PATTERN AS A MID LVL TROF ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
SHRTWV ENERGY AND A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRM THE WEST.
COMBINATION OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASINGLY DIFFUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND A PWAT CORE RISING TO OVER 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STG CONVECTION WITH VERY HVY RAINFALL
RATES. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL MDL SUITE IS
TOO FAR NORTH TONIGHT WITH THEIR CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS...AND THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT FEEDBACK ON THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN THE
NEW 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/SRN MO
AND IL...WOULD LIKE TO PLAY UP A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESP INVOF THE MS RIVER AFTER 06Z
WHERE STRONGER FORCING AND A RISK OF TRAINING/BACKBUILDING
CONVECTION MAY EXIST. HENCE...THERE WILL BE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
AND ESP GIVEN THE STG MSTR/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON
A$$