EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
937 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010
 
...VALID 15Z TUE JUN 08 2010 - 12Z WED JUN 09 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

 
...MIDWEST...

LATEST SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE MIDWEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS CLOUD TOPS ARE GRADUALLY WARMING...AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS THINKING. EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE
MOVING EWD AS A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE VORT MOVES ACRS CNTRL/ERN
IA  AND INTO NRN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE ROBUST SWLY LOW
LVL JET INFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF ITS
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL EXPECT THE CLOUD TOPS
TO CONTINUE TO WARM AND THE MCS TO WEAKEN FURTHER...WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THE RAINFALL RATES. FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOW ACRS ESP
NRN MO WHERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HRS...BUT WITH SLACKENING RAINFALL RATES...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED
FF IS DIMINISHING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 

ORRISON
q$$