QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 254 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 08/0000 UTC THRU JUN 09/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST EWD INTO THE OH VLY... THE LATEST MDL SOLNS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF H5 SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PD...WITH ALL OF THEM ALLOWING VORT ENERGY TO EJECT OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDING ACRS THE N CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MIDWEST ON TUE. THESE SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL BE RESPONSIBLE THOUGH FOR DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PD BEFORE ADVANCING NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAA/MSTR TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT. VORT ENERGY COUPLED WITH STG ISENTROPIC LIFT INVOF AND NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINABLE CONVECTION...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING ACRS THE N CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE ONGOING AND NOT WELL FORECASTED CONVECTION ACRS KS/OK WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE LARGER SCALE WAA PATTERN WHICH WILL INFLUENCE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LLJ FLOW...REACHING 40 TO 50 KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT WILL DRIVE A POOL OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING BY TUE MORNING TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES ACRS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES...WHICH COULD REACH 2 IN/HR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY/MSTR TRANSPORT WILL SET UP FROM NRN NEB ESEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IA...NRN MO AND INTO CNTRL IL BY 12Z/TUE. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE OH VLY...BUT SOME ADDITION CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY UPSTREAM ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. HPC QPF ATTM WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS OF THE WETTER 12Z GFS/GEM GLOB SOLNS AND THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH AS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW VERY HVY RAINFALL TOTALS IMPACTING THE MIDWEST. THE QPF AXIS THOUGH HAS BEEN SUPPRESSES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THIS CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE CONVECTION BOWING SEWD SOMEWHAT INTO THE STG LLJ INFLOW. MANUAL QPF IS ALSO A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLNS. EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMTS POSSIBLE. ...SRN TX... THE MDLS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THE IDEA OF TAKING THE RETROGRADING H5 TROF NOW VCNTY FAR S TX WWD INTO THE LWR TO MID RIO GRANDE VLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND DRIFTING NNEWD BY LATE TUE. THIS ENERGY WL COMBINE WITH A VRY MOIST AMS...PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BKN AXIS OF CNVCTN ACRS MUCH OF SRN TX INTO THE LWR/MID RIO GRANDE VLY. HPC QPF CONTD TO LEAN TWD THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF HIRES SOLNS HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CNVCTN AND HI MSTR IN PLACE. ...FL... A WKNG H5 SHEAR AXIS DROPPING SWD THRU FL ALONG WITH A WKNG SFC FNT WL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SCT CNVCTN THIS PD...BUT MAINLY FOR CNTRL/SRN FL. HPC MANUAL QPF LEANED TWD A SLIGHTLY WETTER VERSION OF THE GFS...GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT. ORRISON GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 09/00Z 0.01 502681 500677 498675 494672 483671 480669 479663 475654 470646 466642 461639 455638 451640 449647 450654 453664 454670 451676 449679 447683 447690 446697 442702 436714 436723 432727 430732 432734 433739 432745 431748 433751 438751 441749 444745 447740 454736 459735 464736 469737 476733 478731 479728 482722 486715 489708 493701 499695 501689 502681 0.01 539187 541171 541162 538157 535151 534144 534135 534125 532112 529099 527088 527079 527069 527050 528041 529037 534034 535030 539017 540012 539008 536994 529984 523977 521974 520967 519949 518938 516929 511917 506910 498907 489906 485905 480906 465903 457903 454900 453895 449890 446887 442884 440878 437874 434870 427865 422859 419847 414833 408825 404822 402817 398808 394805 390804 388804 385807 382816 380823 376830 373839 371844 373851 376865 377871 376875 376880 374885 366888 363891 361895 361903 364907 369915 375922 379928 382934 382941 379949 375956 374965 372975 371985 367994 363002 357009 351014 345020 340027 335034 326036 321035 318032 314031 310033 303036 297039 288050 281049 277055 271060 268059 264057 258054 253057 252060 253066 256074 264079 272084 278088 283090 288090 294084 296081 296076 293069 294064 298063 306061 316062 322067 329071 333072 336075 339077 343075 348072 353070 358071 363068 366063 367060 370057 375054 379057 382058 384057 386060 389061 389064 387068 387080 385087 385090 386092 394096 401094 403105 405117 402129 400143 398147 395151 395154 395158 398160 403159 409154 414147 419140 424133 428126 431124 435124 437127 438132 435142 437146 443147 447146 450141 452128 457118 458071 457064 459060 460054 460048 461042 464037 467033 472031 478028 481029 485030 490032 492037 494041 494046 489055 482059 479060 477063 476070 475077 475081 476085 479092 482098 483103 486118 490121 493125 495130 495132 490131 488131 486133 493151 496155 496160 495164 495172 498181 501186 500192 498200 501205 503211 507216 510220 514219 515214 531204 535196 539187 0.01 407083 407080 407079 406080 406083 407084 407083 0.01 406011 407005 406000 405994 403993 395992 390996 386002 383010 380017 377024 377029 386031 391027 400025 402016 406011 0.01 289812 289807 288803 283797 278794 273792 266791 261792 257789 254788 249790 244794 243799 243806 240813 240819 243824 249825 252826 255829 264838 270837 273836 274832 278820 284818 287815 289812 0.01 318960 317950 314945 308935 302931 298930 294934 291939 289945 285949 278959 268965 263968 255968 242969 239970 234974 232979 233983 237988 236994 236001 238006 243010 248012 260008 266008 270011 275015 280016 284014 288009 295001 304991 306985 306979 308972 310967 315963 318960 0.25 528169 529165 528161 527154 526149 525140 525131 523125 522123 519125 517129 516135 513143 511147 510151 510156 512161 516165 520167 524173 525173 528169 0.25 522015 522009 521004 516994 511985 510981 510974 510964 509950 507940 503930 496923 493921 488921 472924 467926 461926 455926 446924 442921 438914 434903 430896 424889 422886 419880 416872 412862 408856 399840 394836 391835 387836 383838 380843 379851 379859 382869 383880 385887 385893 384910 387924 389931 389939 389944 389950 391961 395963 399959 402958 406957 410963 412973 413979 413984 415996 419005 419010 418024 415033 413036 414041 421057 423068 424072 427074 436074 441074 443069 440060 440048 440033 441023 445003 447994 448990 452986 459983 461984 465987 468992 471004 473008 476009 486009 493011 496014 499018 502023 503027 504041 505048 504055 503062 505068 507072 510074 513072 516068 517054 517046 518037 521024 522015 0.25 269801 265799 260798 257798 252800 250803 250809 249812 250815 252817 256819 259821 262821 265819 266815 266809 266805 269801 0.25 295973 295965 292959 288958 284959 277967 266971 259973 255976 253981 252988 251993 254997 263996 277993 282991 287987 293980 295973 0.50 500954 499936 497931 493928 488927 482929 474934 467944 464947 461952 458955 460959 468962 477965 486966 490970 492972 495969 498966 500958 500954 0.50 494982 494978 493975 491974 490970 489974 488979 489983 491986 494982 494982 0.50 441979 430936 431930 430923 427914 422904 418896 414888 411877 408868 404861 400852 395845 389841 384842 382846 381850 381856 382862 384867 386879 388890 387908 388918 391927 393947 398951 405950 410958 414966 416978 417991 418994 421999 422002 423008 423017 423025 426031 428033 430032 432029 437012 440993 441979 0.50 261814 260811 259808 258806 257805 254805 253808 253811 255813 257814 259815 260815 261814 0.50 290974 290969 288965 286964 283966 278969 272973 264974 259978 259984 264987 271988 279986 284983 289977 290974 1.00 433000 435990 434980 432970 430961 425946 422931 417916 412902 408893 407884 405876 402870 395859 392854 389853 386855 387862 388867 389873 390882 390891 390897 391912 392920 394926 395935 395941 405945 408948 412954 417967 420974 421982 422987 423990 427997 429002 431004 433000 1.00 284975 283972 280974 277974 275975 272976 270977 270978 268980 270981 273982 275981 278980 281979 282978 283977 284975 1.50 431985 431977 430971 427959 424948 421939 414917 406896 404883 403877 400874 396873 393876 393888 392898 393910 395920 397929 399935 401938 405942 407942 416959 421969 423978 424984 427988 430986 431985 2.00 429977 428969 425958 419939 413925 408907 404896 402885 400883 397882 395888 395899 396907 397918 399929 400932 403935 407939 411945 414953 422966 425978 426982 429981 429977 3.00 421958 420948 416940 414933 411928 409926 407923 407919 402908 401913 401920 402924 404927 407934 412941 415948 417952 420955 421958 $$