QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 234 AM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 07/1200 UTC THRU JUN 08/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VLY... A REAL DIFFICULT FORECAST DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS... AS A SOLID ASSORTMENT OF MARITIME UPPER DYNAMICS SLIDES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS ALONG A CONTINUED ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER JET. DESPITE THE SOLID SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... MOST OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE OR NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY BECOMING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE/KS INTO IA/MO. IT IS IN THIS REGION WHERE THE SMALL SCALE WILL RULE... MEANING IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN KS AT THE MOMENT... NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE ANY IDEA THIS ACTIVITY EXISTS. AS A RESULT... HPC LEANED VERY HEAVILY ON THE SREF MEAN ALONG WITH THE ENSBC QPF TO FILTER OUT THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. THE KNOWN FACTS ARE THE THERMAL AXIS... DEEP PLUME OF LL MOISTURE RETURNING AND POOLING INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AN ACTIVE LL H850 JET DIRECTED INTO THE WARM FRONT... BEFORE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST INTO THE UPPER PLAINS BY MON MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND RESULTANT MODEL CHOICE/BLEND MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TREMENDOUS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT QPF ALIGNED NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF IT FROM ERN/CENTRAL NE AND ERN KS INTO IA/MO. HPC WENT WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS HERE... THINKING THIS IS THE APPROPRIATE PATH TO TAKE ON QPF LOCATION/AMOUNTS AND MODEL BLEND. ALSO... A GOOD PART OF THIS REGION WAS IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW NIGHTS AGO WITH BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION AND TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL... THUS FFG IS ALREADY LOW HERE AND HPC WILL ISSUE A SLIGHT AND MDT AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ...GULF COAST STATES... THE OLD UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL SPLIT ON MON... AS PART OF THE VORT LOBE OVER THE FL PENINSULA DISSOLVES BEFORE A SOLID POLAR COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN TOWARD THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE AND A MID TO UPPER LOW NEAR THE WRN PORTION OF THE VORT AXIS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER SOUTH TX. THE RESULTANT IN BOTH SPOTS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS FL AND TX/LA. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/SREF MEAN FOR QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN/SERN TX AND SRN LA AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR AMOUNTS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ...NM/WEST TX... SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND TOMORROW OF SLOW MOVING DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH SITTING OVER AZ/NM. THE MODELS DOING THE BEST JOB WITH THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AND PICKING UP ON THIS POTENTIAL ACTION ON MON IS THE NAM AND SREF MEAN AND HPC FOLLOWED THIS DUO. WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS DROPPING DOWN THE ERN EDGE OF THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS... LEFTOVER MESO BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY AND ENOUGH DENSE LL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN OVER ERN NM... AS THE STEERING CURRENT REMAINS VERY LIGHT. MUSHER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 08/12Z 0.01 524256 526248 529243 532231 537218 540207 542197 544180 544167 543157 542141 541129 541100 540096 539090 536081 531063 525040 522027 519011 518001 523995 523988 523980 521967 518956 514947 510941 504938 490934 487934 483935 477938 472942 469940 463934 461930 458923 455913 453906 451903 445898 437889 427881 416871 411867 408866 404868 393877 386876 377879 373879 371881 368889 369900 370906 369909 366916 366922 368929 368933 367936 366940 364941 359947 354953 355957 356961 363962 366965 367968 369975 368980 367983 368987 372990 375992 381998 381004 376010 365015 357019 353023 349027 344031 339032 336034 332038 323040 320039 318037 312033 305031 301030 298027 292023 286025 284028 285032 286047 285055 286062 290066 294067 297066 303065 310065 316066 321067 323068 324074 325077 332081 340082 347081 349072 350068 354067 359070 367069 370068 371065 372058 377041 381036 386031 391034 395041 398049 399054 401057 407064 409070 408076 404085 404096 402104 402109 403113 405121 408126 411130 411133 410145 409157 411164 413172 414178 418181 420183 425184 432181 435179 438175 444170 448168 453169 457172 459174 463179 467181 471180 478180 484184 492188 496194 503213 502215 501211 497209 495206 491204 483205 475208 467213 461216 455220 449238 453240 455239 461233 471224 477223 486227 491231 496240 500251 505262 506268 509274 512278 517280 0.01 478691 478685 477682 473676 470673 466671 461674 459678 458684 458692 457698 455703 445711 443715 442719 443723 446730 450733 453732 455729 456723 458718 460715 470706 473704 475701 477697 478691 0.01 499140 498130 498118 499107 500095 499092 497086 494081 485078 479074 473071 468067 465064 463067 463073 465081 471086 473092 473096 473105 471115 466121 466127 479129 487132 492137 496141 499140 0.01 409791 409786 407783 403782 400779 397777 392775 390776 393782 393783 394791 394794 396797 401798 404798 407796 409791 0.01 305809 303805 299801 292798 281796 273793 265792 255792 249795 246798 243806 241812 242817 249825 252828 256831 264832 275831 283834 287837 289841 294850 297858 300861 305861 307857 308846 309835 308830 306824 305820 306816 305809 0.01 327928 318914 316903 312895 305890 300890 297892 292899 289907 288911 288917 285924 280929 275934 268940 264947 262956 259961 254967 248972 238974 234979 235982 238986 238990 236993 235995 234001 236005 240007 243008 248007 254006 265017 268018 274018 281016 289003 295995 298988 302980 306975 312967 316961 316954 316948 316944 317940 325934 327928 0.25 535200 536190 536181 534166 532154 528140 524136 520139 516143 514147 511166 509179 510184 511188 514190 517192 521196 528204 531204 535200 0.25 514049 514039 511027 507020 505016 501015 499019 500025 500031 500045 500052 501059 504068 506077 510078 511077 513063 513056 514049 514049 0.25 456105 456100 453095 449093 445092 441094 435095 432098 430104 428108 427112 428115 430120 432122 434122 440121 443121 446120 449117 452114 455110 456105 0.25 443966 444959 443952 441941 438930 436923 432914 428908 422903 416902 409901 403899 396897 389900 384906 381912 380920 382929 387947 388954 389963 391980 392985 395990 398994 402002 405009 408020 410026 422056 424060 428063 432063 436062 441055 444048 446038 443029 440022 438017 438012 439005 439998 438989 439978 441971 443966 0.25 340051 338050 335049 332049 330049 327049 325052 327053 330054 331055 333055 335055 336055 338054 340051 0.25 294820 294814 291809 284805 277801 268801 264801 260799 257798 252798 249803 249806 251808 257814 263820 269824 278826 286825 292823 294820 0.25 306932 305926 303920 301917 300916 297921 298928 297934 297938 296944 295948 295951 297952 299949 301946 304942 305936 306932 0.25 289969 294959 292956 287961 285968 282970 277972 266973 261974 256976 253978 251982 249989 249994 252996 261999 266997 271995 276991 281984 286975 289969 0.50 451101 450100 447100 444100 441100 441101 438104 441107 444107 446105 447104 450104 451101 0.50 439040 438037 437036 435034 432033 429033 426035 424037 427040 429042 432043 435044 438042 439040 0.50 434968 434951 433944 431936 427925 424918 421915 414912 411910 405909 397906 393906 389908 386913 385918 386925 388931 392942 394953 395961 396968 396978 401988 407996 411004 411011 414017 418019 422017 426009 428004 430996 431984 434968 0.50 288816 287813 285811 281810 280809 278809 276809 273811 272813 271814 269817 270820 271821 274822 277822 279822 282821 285820 287819 288816 0.50 273983 270980 268980 267980 264980 262980 260981 259983 259984 258988 258991 260992 263990 265989 268988 271987 272986 273983 273983 1.00 426977 426967 426957 424947 421943 419933 416928 411925 405924 400923 395926 396935 397944 399952 402958 403968 405973 408982 412985 416990 418995 422991 424985 426977 1.50 422962 422954 420948 416944 413941 411937 408934 405931 403934 403939 404947 405952 409956 411961 413968 415971 417973 419971 421966 422962 2.00 420959 420955 418951 415956 417959 418961 420959 $$