EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
233 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2010
 
...VALID 18Z MON JUN 07 2010 - 00Z WED JUN 09 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW 1H2 15 NNW SET 45 NE COU 35 N COU 40 SSW IRK 20 SSE CDJ
25 SW CDJ 25 E STJ 30 WSW LWD 15 NE ICL 10 E CBF 30 ESE OFK
20 NW OFK 10 SSE ONL 25 NNE ANW 25 ESE ICR 40 SSW MHE 15 NNW YKN
10 SSE ORC 10 SSW FOD 30 SW VTI 10 E MUT 15 WSW C75 15 ENE TIP
20 N HUF 10 N RSV 25 WNW 1H2.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
10 SW BNW TNU 15 NNE MPZ 20 SE GBG 15 SSW BMI 15 WSW CMI
20 SE DEC TAZ PPQ 25 SE IRK 25 NNE CDJ 10 NNE LWD 20 ESE AIO
15 E TQE 30 WSW SUX 25 NW SUX 25 SW SLB 10 SW BNW.

 
...MIDWEST...

SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN ASSOC WITH A MID/UPR LVL TROF WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE CNTRL
PLAINS ALONG WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN WAA/MSTR TRANSPORT
OVERNIGHT. VORT ENERGY COUPLED WITH STG ISENTROPIC LIFT INVOF AND
NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
AMT OF ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINABLE CONVECTION...FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING ACRS THE N CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
THE MIDWEST. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE ONGOING AND NOT WELL
FORECASTED CONVECTION ACRS KS/OK WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE LARGER SCALE WAA PATTERN
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LLJ FLOW...REACHING 40 TO 50 KTS AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT WILL DRIVE A POOL OF
VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY...AND WITH PWATS
INCREASING BY TUE MORNING TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES ACRS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES...WHICH COULD
REACH 2 IN/HR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
INSTABILITY/MSTR TRANSPORT WILL SET UP FROM NRN NEB ESEWD INTO
CNTRL/SRN IA...NRN MO AND INTO CNTRL IL BY 12Z/TUE.
THEREAFTER...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
OH VLY...BUT SOME ADDITION CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
UPSTREAM ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW. TOTALS THROUGH 00Z/WED ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS
HIGH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN
RECENT HVY RAINFALL OVER THE THREAT AREA...THERE IS LOCALLY A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON
$$