EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
958 AM EDT MON JUN 07 2010
 
...VALID 15Z MON JUN 07 2010 - 12Z TUE JUN 08 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE MQB 15 W IJX 20 SW PPQ 45 NNE COU 35 S IRK 15 NNW CDJ
30 SW LWD 10 ESE RDK CBF 20 NNW FET 10 W SUX 15 SE ORC 15 NW FOD
20 SW VTI 15 SSE MUT 15 ESE MQB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
10 SE IRK 25 SE LWD 10 ESE CSQ AIO 10 SSW CIN 20 WSW BNW
10 NW TNU 20 WNW AWG FSW 25 WNW UIN 10 SE IRK.

 
...MIDWEST...

MADE SOME MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FF THREAT AREA...MAINLY TO
SHIFT THE AXIS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ACCOUNTING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TONIGHT TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN THE 00Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...

SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN ASSOC WITH A MID/UPR LVL TROF WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE CNTRL
PLAINS ALONG WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN WAA/MSTR TRANSPORT
OVERNIGHT. VORT ENERGY COUPLED WITH STG ISENTROPIC LIFT INVOF AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT AMT
OF ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINABLE CONVECTION...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
ACRS THE N CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST. STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LLJ FLOW...REACHING AS HIGH AS 40 TO
50 KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH SOME NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A POOL OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING BY TUE MORNING TO
LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES ACRS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY HVY
RAINFALL RATES...WHICH COULD REACH 2 IN/HR. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY/MSTR TRANSPORT WILL SET
UP FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB ESEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IA...NRN MO AND INTO
CNTRL IL BY 12Z/TUE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 12Z/TUE ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMTS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT HVY RAINFALL OVER THE THREAT AREA...THERE
IS LOCALLY A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON
$$