QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 250 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 11/0000 UTC THRU JUN 12/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT ON AN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE SLOW MOVG MID LEVEL VORT OVR NERN TX. THE NAM IS ON THE SLOW END WITH THE NEWD PUSH...THE GFS ON THE FAST END OF THE MODEL SOLN ENVELOP. THE NAM HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS..WITH THE EC AND GFS SHOWING BETTER SKILL. AT THE MOMENT...WE SUPPORTED THE ECMWF NEWD SPEED AS A COMPROMISE. THIS SYSTEM WL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES..2-2.25"+. THIS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION INVOF THE CNTR...WITH ACTIVITY FARTHER AWAY DURG THE DAY LIGHT HOURS AND LIKELY CONTRACTING CLOSER TO THE CNTR AT NIGHT. THE HIGH PWS AND SLOW MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS PERIOD...WL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PCPN AREA MAY TRAIN OR REMAIN NEARLY STNRY INVOF THE MID LEVEL CNTR. WITH THE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSION THIS PERIOD...THE TOTAL PCPN AMTS WL LIKELY NOT BE AS GREAT AS IN PREV DAYS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5". THIS WL BE ESPECIALLY SO EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM WL BE STILL MOVG SLOW AND CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE NEAR THE CNTR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CNTRL-NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY...UPR LAKES REGION... LATEST SATL AND RADAR IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW DISSIPATION TO THE MCC MOVG INTO THE MID WEST WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING RADAR RETURNS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAKENING MCC...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ACRS THE CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS HELPING TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE FCST TO PUSH ENEWD FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS...INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND UPR LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PCPN AMTS ACRS THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH THE LAT OF THE MAX AXIS. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FROM ITS 0000 UTC RUN. THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND SREF MEAN WITH HVY PCPN AMTS FROM ERN SD...ACRS CNTRL TO SRN MN..CNTRL TO NRN WI AND INTO THE U.P. OF MI. NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN TROF OVR THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE NATION. WELL DEFINED SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATING NEWD OUT OF THE MEAN TROF PSN THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WL SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ACRS THESE AREAS. MODELS IN GENERAL AGRMNT WITH MDT TO HVY PCPN THREAT IN THIS COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND...WITH THE GFS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS HEAVIER TOTALS OVR CNTRL TO NERN MT. THE DAY 1 QPF IS FAVORING A MORE MODEST ECMWF/SREF MEAN/NAM TYPE SOLN WITH AREAL AVG .50-1"+ AMTS. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 12/00Z 0.01 522245 524236 521230 520222 520215 520207 520198 518192 515185 509171 502159 498148 492137 487127 484121 483116 483112 485109 488107 493103 496099 503092 506088 508081 512058 514049 515041 517026 516009 515999 514991 508977 501963 501958 503953 507948 507939 505928 503899 503894 502890 499886 495877 491858 489849 487841 483830 477816 472801 468786 464778 461774 458768 454765 452767 448773 444785 442792 442799 441806 439812 434820 430826 429829 430840 431847 433854 435863 435876 434888 433894 431900 428905 426911 425916 426924 423934 420939 418944 413953 406963 402967 397971 387977 382979 377979 368979 356978 348977 339976 333975 328976 310981 294990 288993 284994 274996 262998 255999 252001 242006 243010 246014 248019 253020 261022 264025 266029 274034 281035 286031 291029 296029 301030 305029 309026 316022 334014 340013 344015 346020 351023 353024 357023 361020 371015 374014 379014 379017 378021 374032 370040 370043 372046 374050 378057 384063 387068 387072 389079 394082 403079 410072 414069 419068 424068 424073 421079 421087 425097 427100 422103 418107 414108 411106 410100 406094 403106 398113 396116 399118 403121 406125 416130 421134 424134 427132 432125 434120 436123 434130 431134 427139 425143 422145 413149 397144 393147 391150 391157 393158 399160 403160 410156 413157 417161 425167 428167 431164 434162 437163 440165 446174 444183 447187 449191 452191 459185 463181 465173 469170 474174 478178 481183 485188 488193 487197 485199 481201 472206 465209 455210 438216 436219 434224 431235 430237 429241 432245 437247 440247 462246 466248 469251 484258 492266 496271 499277 505280 507277 507273 502262 498251 493240 491237 488234 484236 478225 486228 489229 491233 494235 500243 504249 510252 516254 519252 522245 0.01 444717 442709 439703 436695 433689 427681 423679 419680 410682 401690 400700 402711 405715 409719 416721 424726 432729 436728 441726 444722 444717 0.01 419855 418851 414849 405849 397850 388851 375849 360847 354846 347842 343833 341827 341822 342814 342806 340798 340788 339785 337784 330787 312799 310804 308811 303813 297811 290810 284807 269801 258796 252798 248803 243815 245817 247816 250811 252814 255816 259820 271824 279823 286824 301831 305836 307846 311852 319848 323850 329854 335859 341865 344869 347873 347877 333885 328892 325899 322908 321912 320918 316931 315935 315940 316945 319949 322957 326958 331957 336957 342954 349948 367925 377915 384906 391903 395901 398898 403891 408878 412871 417864 419855 0.25 489911 489901 487892 485886 482877 475849 473840 470832 466826 462822 459820 454821 451825 449830 442855 440880 439894 438902 437907 430928 427941 423952 417961 413971 408996 406008 405013 399012 393015 390019 388024 389028 393037 397041 400041 403039 406035 409033 414036 421034 424033 427029 432020 436007 439000 442995 454981 461973 469964 477956 481948 486939 489929 489911 0.25 495063 494055 491049 488045 484041 480037 475033 464033 454039 447044 445048 445053 444060 436068 437072 439075 444080 446085 445092 442098 442103 444106 445109 445113 444121 442126 439132 438136 438141 439145 450150 462153 468154 471150 471136 472129 473120 476107 478097 481090 487081 490077 493071 495063 0.25 390885 388878 385875 382873 377872 372874 368878 363886 357892 347897 342898 336901 329907 329911 327911 326914 323924 321932 321939 323946 325949 330951 333951 338949 344943 349936 356929 362922 368914 380900 387894 390889 390885 0.25 266812 265811 264810 261808 260807 257806 255807 254810 256813 257813 259815 260815 263816 264816 266814 266812 0.50 482904 477880 470857 467846 464841 461839 457840 453847 450856 447865 444875 444883 443893 442905 437922 434929 432940 426955 419972 417982 415989 413999 411011 410019 411024 414026 419024 423021 428013 434000 444986 454972 465959 473947 478940 481935 482927 482909 482904 0.50 482077 485069 485064 484060 479054 471049 466048 462051 456056 450061 448065 443068 441073 448080 450085 450089 447097 449105 450109 450116 446124 442134 442142 447145 453146 462146 466136 468130 469123 469116 471111 473107 474102 476089 480081 482077 0.50 384887 383884 378882 372884 362895 354901 350904 346904 341904 336908 331913 327920 324927 323931 324938 327946 331947 335947 341943 345936 349930 354923 360919 371906 376899 382894 384887 1.00 474912 474902 474893 471877 465865 463858 461858 459860 451880 449885 448891 446903 444914 441926 436947 431971 431977 433983 435984 438981 451967 458959 464951 469941 473929 474912 1.00 471081 471074 468075 462080 460081 458085 456097 457110 459118 458123 455126 451133 451134 454137 460133 463131 464127 464114 467102 469093 471083 471081 1.00 367903 366900 365900 363901 360904 359906 360909 361910 364908 366905 367903 1.00 344924 343918 339915 336914 331917 329921 327924 326928 326935 329941 332943 338942 341938 342933 344927 344924 1.50 469900 468889 465884 464879 461877 459878 453891 449905 446920 444933 442942 442950 444958 450958 455955 460950 464945 466940 468922 470904 469900 1.50 340935 340932 340928 340925 339922 337919 336919 334918 331919 331920 329924 328928 328931 329934 330937 332939 334940 337939 340936 340935 2.00 463919 463911 463902 462898 459895 456897 455900 454905 452910 450915 448921 447928 447932 445941 446945 449948 455945 457942 460937 462932 463924 463919 2.00 338932 338929 337925 335923 333923 332922 331923 330926 329927 329931 331934 334935 337935 338932 $$