QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 310 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 10/1200 UTC THRU JUN 11/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CONCERNING THE NORTHEAST TX UPPER LO... TNGTS 00Z GUIDANCE INDCS THAT THIS UPPER LO..WHICH HAS ACTED TO SOME EXTENT LIKE A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM.. WILL SLOWLY ACCELERATE AND LIFT NEWD BRINGING A SWATH OF SGFNT RAINS FM NERN TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY WITH TIME. THE GFS AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ACCORD ON THE AXIS OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BOTH INDC FAR HEAVIER TOTALS THAN THE NAM WHICH APPEARS MUCH TOO DRY. FOR NOW OPTED TO BLEND THE GFS AND GEM AS HI PW AVBLTY..FVBL DIV FLOW ALOFT AND A SUSTAINED NWD MSTR FLUX FM THE GULF SUPPORT CNVCTV RAINS THRU THE PD WITH THE LIFTING OUT SYSTEM. ...CONCERNING THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE NWRN US... DYNAMIC COOLING ASOCTD WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL FIRE SHWRS FM THE PAC NW EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE FCST PD AS IT TAPS MSTR POOLING ALONG ITS ASOCTD FRONTAL BAND. MODEL QPFS IN REASONABLE ACCORD PLACING ONE AXIS OF PCPN FM CNTRL ID NEWD INTO CNTRL MT WHICH SEEMS A GOOD FIT TO AVBL JET DYNAMICS WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SECOND BAND OF SHWRS IS EXPECTED TO DVLP IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LLVL BNDRY THIS EVNG AND TNGT FM WRN WY EWD TO WRN DAKOTA AS DAY TIME HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO INSTABILITY. MODELS IN A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS AXIS AND FOR NOW OPTED TO BLEND MODEL QPFS FOR THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND. ...CNTRL HI PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... MODELS IN GNRL ARE ARGUING FOR A HVY RNFL EVENT OVR THE N CNTRL U.S. THRU THE FCST PD AS SHRTWV ENERGY TAPS MSTR POOLING ALONG A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BE LYING ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY..MODEL QPFS DIFFER SGFNTLY HERE SUGGESTING MESOSCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY PLAY A SGFNT ROLE IN CONCENTRATING ACTVTY. FACTORS SUPPORTING SGFNT CNVTV RAINS INCLUDE A STG NWD MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION THAT WILL INCRS PW AVBLTY AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE LIFTING PROCESS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION RNFL MAY MAXIMIZE INVOF CNTRL MN AS A WEAK SFC WV DVLPS ALONG THE E/W ORIENTED FRONTAL BAND AS WELL AS INVOF N CNTRL/NERN NE AS A LEE LOW ENHANCES MSTR ADVCTN INTO THAT REGION. STAYED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF OVR THE UPPER MS VLY BUT LEANED MORE TWDS THE GEM REGIONAL OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. FOR BOTH CHOICES..THEIR MODEL QPFS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST FIT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS..PARTICULARLY THE LLVL FORCING EXPECTED OVR THOSE AREAS. ...NORTHEAST... ALIGNED LOW TO MID LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXPECTED TO BE LYING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS AN ADVANCING SHRTWV TROF TAPS MSTR ALONG THE FEATURE. GFS AND GEM REGIONAL QPFS IN PRETTY GOOD ACCORD IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT. ...TN VLY ESEWD TO THE SE ATLC COAST... SHWRS WILL DVLP ACROSS THIS AREA AS MSTR CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BAND..PER MODEL RH FIELDS..AS WELL AS AXIS OF WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT. KORTY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 11/12Z 0.01 533220 534210 534202 533195 534186 536167 536158 535151 533145 530140 526137 520135 511138 505139 499138 495135 491130 487127 486122 486114 487107 491099 501082 511069 517060 520054 521050 520044 517039 507037 501039 498039 496037 503031 511024 513020 515013 515000 514991 504968 500960 498954 498947 497931 500922 502906 502894 501885 499880 495877 492877 485876 481877 471877 467874 464870 461865 459859 456855 453854 449853 445856 440864 436868 431868 426870 423874 425887 425891 423894 419899 416902 412902 406900 402893 390881 381862 370841 367835 366828 366818 362811 358800 354782 353775 349769 344766 340761 336762 331764 327764 324765 322769 317775 314784 313788 310792 307801 307811 308820 308829 308837 309843 310849 313858 314864 314866 310882 310892 312904 312908 311913 309922 307929 300935 293942 288949 283966 280976 279979 279985 281988 284990 290990 303983 310981 317984 322984 325982 330980 333977 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456196 454198 451199 444203 438198 435193 434191 431191 426194 429202 432207 437210 444211 453209 459204 462203 465204 470201 481196 482195 0.01 467025 464023 461023 460026 461030 464030 465030 467026 467025 0.01 389024 389019 388017 382011 375011 373011 370008 362010 357013 353013 352012 356006 359002 361998 361995 357994 349994 336998 324002 311007 300012 295016 291021 285031 282035 281039 282043 284048 288053 292056 299058 306058 310055 315052 323050 338049 352047 363043 377036 381033 386029 389024 0.25 519201 521197 520193 517191 516195 517196 519201 519201 0.25 508235 508231 507228 504228 501228 500228 497231 497232 500233 501237 502239 505239 508235 0.25 450727 448722 446718 443709 439703 434700 424696 416703 414707 413711 414716 417722 421726 430732 433735 434740 432748 433755 436760 442755 445749 445741 444735 449730 450727 0.25 496172 495170 493167 490167 487165 484165 483169 484171 485174 486177 489177 492176 493175 495172 496172 0.25 497063 495059 492058 488058 485059 477064 470069 463073 458074 454074 447072 441068 439063 438060 441048 440040 439033 442023 445014 449007 454002 462997 472999 480998 488002 491000 493995 491990 488988 485974 485953 487926 486918 483912 476910 472908 469906 464897 460890 455883 449880 445882 442884 434903 432911 428921 425926 424935 418943 415951 413961 411972 410976 411982 413991 415003 415014 414024 413030 413037 412042 410046 408051 410055 412058 417059 418060 418063 417069 417074 418081 419084 424091 428099 422104 417113 414114 414118 420118 424119 429115 434115 439115 441118 442124 441132 439135 434145 433152 433158 435161 440162 445160 450155 463144 467132 469127 472123 475113 479103 485090 493073 497067 497063 0.25 471241 472237 470233 467231 468226 472219 470214 461213 452216 443218 438218 433220 431224 434229 435231 438232 439235 437238 448244 454243 457242 466243 471241 0.25 433036 434032 432030 429031 426032 425033 423035 421037 422041 423045 424045 427044 429041 430040 432037 433036 0.25 371913 371909 368908 361909 356908 351908 346905 343899 337891 332888 327886 324886 323889 323895 324903 324911 320920 314931 309939 299947 296950 294954 290967 289973 293977 303973 309972 316971 321969 326965 331957 338946 346937 350935 357932 365926 370918 371913 0.25 346806 344800 342794 338787 336784 332782 330784 328788 324794 321802 320810 317818 318827 321829 325826 330822 334832 340855 344863 350866 352865 354860 352850 349841 345831 344825 345821 346813 346806 0.50 481936 481930 481924 478919 476919 472920 468918 465913 462903 458896 454891 449888 446890 444893 442900 440907 437914 433931 431938 428943 422947 419954 415968 414978 416990 417000 418010 417029 421030 426027 431022 436016 439011 442003 445998 450993 455989 461985 466981 470974 474960 477953 479946 481936 0.50 482085 483080 480077 473079 465086 459090 456093 448095 444098 441104 441109 444116 446120 445125 444136 444141 442145 445148 447144 451139 456136 460131 463126 465119 469114 472107 478094 482085 0.50 463225 465221 463217 461217 458217 454218 456223 457224 459226 462226 463225 0.50 444149 442146 438149 438153 440153 441152 444149 0.50 364919 362915 358914 350913 340916 334920 329921 322926 313938 303949 298955 295961 294966 294970 296971 299970 301967 318967 324962 328957 337943 342936 348931 356928 362923 364919 1.00 473943 472938 471936 467932 464928 461920 459912 456905 452902 449903 446907 443920 441931 441939 442949 443953 441956 438959 432962 427958 424958 423961 421966 419974 419981 420998 422016 425021 426021 431016 434011 438000 444989 447986 452981 456978 460973 465962 470951 473943 1.00 343928 337929 331934 328934 323933 320935 315940 312944 309952 312958 314961 318962 322961 324959 327951 330947 333940 337934 340932 341929 343928 1.50 464945 462933 459921 457915 454911 450913 448917 445927 445934 446941 447956 446966 439971 433972 429972 425974 423978 422982 422996 423003 425009 430005 432001 436993 440985 442982 446978 457966 459962 461957 464948 464945 1.50 324942 323939 320940 318943 318947 319949 321946 324943 324942 1.50 323955 322952 322950 319950 316951 315954 315957 317958 320959 323957 323955 2.00 460937 459933 457925 455917 454916 452918 450923 449928 448936 449944 449948 450957 453960 456958 457955 459950 460942 460937 2.00 431996 431992 431989 430985 429983 426984 426985 425989 424993 424995 424997 425000 425001 428003 429001 430998 431996 $$