EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
213 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2010
 
...VALID 06Z THU JUN 10 2010 - 12Z FRI JUN 11 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW PBF 40 E BAD 25 NNE JAS 25 ENE CXO DWH 10 ENE 11R
30 NNE LHB 15 SW LNC 15 ESE LBR 15 SW MWT 15 ESE RUE LRF
15 WNW PBF.

WEAK UPPER LO OVR NERN TX WHICH HAS ACTED LIKE A WEAK TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS FCST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THE
FCST PD.  THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS BUT
NOT ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY AS HI MSTR AVBLTY..FVBL DIV FLOW
ALOFT AND THE INITIALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR
INTENSE RNFL RATES AS THE INTERACTION OF CNVCTV CELLS OCCURS. 
COULD SEE QUICK 2.00 INCH RNFL AMTS WITH TOTALS THRU THE PD APCHG
5 INCHES OVER LOCALIZED ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.



SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WSW HON 30 NNW ATY 15 NE FFM 10 ENE PWC 10 WNW HYR 10 W RRL
20 WSW MFI 20 S MKT 10 SE JYG 10 SSE OTG 10 NNW SUX 15 NNW ODX
15 SSW TIF 45 ENE AIA 40 WNW VTN 30 N VTN 30 WSW HON.

MODELS IN GNRL ARE ARGUING FOR A HVY RNFL EVENT OVR THE N CNTRL
U.S. THRU THE FCST PD AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS TAP MSTR POOLING
ALONG A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BE LYING ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  UNFORTUNATELY..MODEL QPFS DIFFER SGFNTLY HERE
SUGGESTING MESOSCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY PLAY A SGFNT ROLE IN
CONCENTRATING ACTVTY.  FACTORS FOR SUPPORTING SGFNT CNVTV RAINS
INCLUDE A STG NWD MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION THAT WILL INCRS PW
AVBLTY AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE LIFTING
PROCESS.  THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION RNFL MAY MAXIMIZE INVOF CNTRL
MN AS A WEAK SFC WV DVLPS ALONG THE E/W ORIENTED FRONTAL BAND AS
WELL AS INVOF N CNTRL/NERN NE AS A LEE LOW ENHANCES MSTR ADVCTN
INTO THAT REGION.  LOCALIZED AMTS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES IN AN
HOUR OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SPOTTY 5.00 INCH AMTS ACROSS CNTRL MN WHERE THE
BEST LLVL CNVGNC SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED.

KORTY
$$