EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
917 PM EDT WED JUN 09 2010
 
...VALID 03Z THU JUN 10 2010 - 00Z FRI JUN 11 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
 

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N DTN 20 ENE LFK 30 SSW LFK DWH 25 SSE 11R 15 ESE 3T5 3T5
10 SW 62H 10 WNW 62H 20 NNW 62H 35 WSW LHB 25 SE TPL 15 E TPL
10 S PWG 10 NW PWG 15 NW CNW 15 SW INJ INJ 10 S JWY HQZ
15 ESE TKI 10 SSW PRX LBR 25 S DEQ TXK 20 N DTN.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
LHB 10 NNW CLL CLL 10 NE CLL 15 E CLL 15 ESE CLL 15 SE CLL
10 NNE 11R 11R 10 NW 11R 15 SW CLL 20 WSW CLL 25 NNE 62H
20 NNE 62H 15 NNE 62H 15 N 62H 25 N 62H 30 SW LHB 25 SW LHB
20 SSW LHB 15 SSW LHB 10 S LHB LHB.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GGG 15 NW LFK 20 N UTS 30 NW UTS
20 ENE LHB 20 NNW LHB 35 N LHB 30 SSW CRS CRS 15 ENE LNC
20 SSE GVT 10 ENE SLR 15 NE OSA 30 ESE OSA 15 NE GGG 25 S GGG.

 
NORTHEAST TX...

ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INVOF THE SLOW MOVG MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW FCST TO PUSH ENEWD THIS PERIOD THRU NERN TX.  THE
12Z GFS WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE 18Z GFS HAS BROUGHT
THE HEAVIER RAIN BACK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  THE GENERAL MODEL SIGNAL
WL BE FOR A VERY SLOW MOVG SYSTEM.  UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A REGION WHERE ECMWF OUTPUT INDICATES 2.25
INCH PW VALUES TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN.  SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVR THE PAST DAY...ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CNTR DURG THE DAY AND CONTRACT TOWARD THE
CNTR AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO A INLAND TROPICAL SYSTEM.  VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMTS POSSIBLE INVOF THIS CNTR WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF PCPN REGION AND/OR TRAINING OF CELLS...ESPECIALLY
ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/ADVANCED RESEARCH WRF NMM FROM NCEP SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES IN REGIONS OF SLOW MOVEMENT OR TRAINING
OF CONVECTION.  

PETERSEN
$$